Premier League · Regular Season - 15
Dinamo Makhachkala vs Spartak Moscow
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 13:30 UTC · Anzhi Arena, Kaspijsk
Dinamo Makhachkala host Spartak Moscow on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Dinamo Makhachkala 16%, draw 23%, Spartak Moscow 61%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dinamo Makhachkala €607K, Spartak Moscow €5.0M.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Premier Liga matchday 15: 425 points.
- Style contrast in possession (Premier Liga): Dinamo Makhachkala rank #14 of 15, Spartak Moscow #2.
- Dinamo Makhachkala's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Dinamo Makhachkala goals first.
- 0–112%
- 0–212%
- 1–111%
- 1–210%
- 0–37%
- 0–07%
- Other scores41%
Team Elo: Dinamo Makhachkala 1563 · Spartak Moscow 1988
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dinamo Makhachkala · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1573
Spartak Moscow · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.5 (Good) · Elo 2031
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dinamo Makhachkala
11th in Premier Liga · 16 pts from 14
- 8 NovWBaltika Russia Premier League1531
- 1 NovLFC Rostov Russia Premier League1546
- 25 OctLZenit Russia Premier League1554
- 17 OctDAkron Russia Premier League1555
- 10 OctLFC Orenburg Russia Premier League1580
Spartak Moscow
3rd in Premier Liga · 29 pts from 14
- 8 NovWAkron Russia Premier League2002
- 1 NovWLokomotiv Russia Premier League1972
- 25 OctLCSKA Moscow Russia Premier League1992
- 18 OctWRubin Russia Premier League1954
- 10 OctDKrylia Sovetov Russia Premier League2005
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Makhachkala | 16 /14 | 30.0 | 0% | 0% | 52% | 15th |
| Spartak Moscow | 29 /14 | 58.1 | 12% | 91% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: low-volume · direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dinamo Makhachkala: direct · high-pressing (how Vadim Evseev plays) · Spartak Moscow: possession-based (how Carcedo plays)