Ligue 2 · Regular Season - 8
Dijon 4–2 Metz
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · Stade Gaston-Gérard, Dijon
DijonTeam 1464MetzTeam 1656- H. Vargas Ríos 19'
- Ange Lago 24'
- Júlio Tavares 32'
- Quentin Bernard 69'
- Pape Moussa Fall 44', 88'
We gave Metz 45% to win: Dijon won.
- H. Vargas Ríos – assist Paul Bellon –19'Dijon:H. Vargas Ríos – assist Paul Bellon –
- 23'Jean Ruiz –Metz:Jean Ruiz –
- Ange Lago –24'Dijon:Ange Lago –
- Júlio Tavares – assist Paul Bellon –32'Dijon:Júlio Tavares – assist Paul Bellon –
- 44'Pape Moussa Fall – assist Jessy Deminguet –Metz:Pape Moussa Fall – assist Jessy Deminguet –
- 51'Abdourahmane Mbodj for Believe Munongo –Metz:Abdourahmane Mbodj for Believe Munongo –
- Alexis Ntamack – for Ange Lago –62'Dijon:Alexis Ntamack – for Ange Lago –
- Brandon Nsimba Ndezi – for H. Vargas Ríos –62'Dijon:Brandon Nsimba Ndezi – for H. Vargas Ríos –
- 62'Florian Miguel –Metz:Florian Miguel –
- 66'Morgan Bokele Mputu – for Florian Miguel –Metz:Morgan Bokele Mputu – for Florian Miguel –
- 66'Ibou Sane – for Giorgi Abuashvili –Metz:Ibou Sane – for Giorgi Abuashvili –
- Quentin Bernard –69'Dijon:Quentin Bernard –
- 72'Cristian Castro –Metz:Cristian Castro –
- Samy Chouchane – for Adel Lembezat –76'Dijon:Samy Chouchane – for Adel Lembezat –
- Tyris Dong – for Júlio Tavares –76'Dijon:Tyris Dong – for Júlio Tavares –
- Luis Puleri for Boubacar Diallo84'Dijon:Luis Puleri for Boubacar Diallo
- 84'Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag – for Bouna Sarr –Metz:Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag – for Bouna Sarr –
- 84'Abdoulaye Agne Ba – for Maxime Colin –Metz:Abdoulaye Agne Ba – for Maxime Colin –
- 88'Pape Moussa Fall – assist Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag –Metz:Pape Moussa Fall – assist Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag –
Before kick-off (provisional): 27% · 28% · 45%(Dijon · draw · Metz)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 4–2 had 1%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dijon €208K, Metz €849K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dijon
10th in Ligue 2 · 9 pts from 7
- 18 SepWAnnecy France Ligue 21395
- 11 SepWLaval France Ligue 21310
- 4 SepDBoulogne France Ligue 21348
- 31 AugLSaint Etienne France Ligue 21412
- 21 AugDClermont Foot France Ligue 21328
Metz
9th in Ligue 2 · 10 pts from 7
- 19 SepDSaint Etienne France Ligue 21663
- 14 SepLRED Star FC 93 France Ligue 21659
- 5 SepWRodez France Ligue 21637
- 29 AugDAnnecy France Ligue 21657
- 22 AugDLaval France Ligue 21596
Season outlook
From the Ligue 2 simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dijon | 9 /7 | 35.7 | 0% | <1% | 43% | 16th |
| Metz | 10 /7 | 48.7 | 1% | 14% | 1% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dijon · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Good) · Elo 1700
Metz · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1756
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile