Premier Division · Regular Season - 35
Derry City vs Dundalk
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 18:45 UTC · The Ryan McBride Brandywell Stadium, Derry
Derry City host Dundalk on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Premier Division); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Derry City 56%, draw 25%, Dundalk 19%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Derry City €316K, Dundalk €173K.
- Premier Division: D. Burns is the highest-rated midfielder (1764).
- Style contrast in dribbling (Premier Division): Derry City rank #3 of 11, Dundalk #8.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Derry City goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Derry City 1604 · Dundalk 1423
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Derry City · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1591
Dundalk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1462
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Derry City
6th in Premier Division · 41 pts from 33
- 16 OctLDrogheda United Irish Premier Division1576
- 18 SepWGalway United Irish Premier Division1608
- 14 SepDWaterford Irish Premier Division1605
- 11 SepWShelbourne Irish Premier Division1590
- 30 AugDShamrock Rovers Irish Premier Division1568
Dundalk
5th in Premier Division · 42 pts from 34
- 17 OctDSligo Rovers Irish Premier Division1434
- 2 OctLBohemians Irish Premier Division1408
- 18 SepLShelbourne Irish Premier Division1432
- 14 SepLSt Patrick's Athl. Irish Premier Division1395
- 11 SepDWaterford Irish Premier Division1372
Season outlook
From the Premier Division simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derry City | 41 /33 | 46.2 | 0% | 23% | 1% | 5th |
| Dundalk | 42 /34 | 43.9 | 0% | 1% | 5% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 10th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Derry City: balanced profile (how Mark Connolly plays) · Dundalk: balanced profile (how Ciarán Kilduff plays)