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Championship · Regular Season - 9

Derby 1–1 Wrexham

Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Pride Park Stadium, Derby

Derby crestDerbyTeam 1851
1–1
Full time
HT 1–0
Wrexham crestWrexhamTeam 1933

Match story

Derby · draw · Wrexham

Before kick-off: 35% · 29% · 36%

Live chances: Derby 2%, draw 96%, Wrexham 2% at 90+5'2' · 0–0 · Derby 35%, draw 29%, Wrexham 36%3' · 0–0 · Derby 35%, draw 29%, Wrexham 36%4' · 0–0 · Derby 35%, draw 29%, Wrexham 35%5' · 0–0 · Derby 35%, draw 30%, Wrexham 35%6' · 0–0 · Derby 35%, draw 30%, Wrexham 35%7' · 0–0 · Derby 35%, draw 30%, Wrexham 35%8' · 0–0 · Derby 35%, draw 30%, Wrexham 35%9' · 0–0 · Derby 35%, draw 30%, Wrexham 35%10' · 1–0 · Derby 64%, draw 22%, Wrexham 14%11' · 1–0 · Derby 64%, draw 22%, Wrexham 14%12' · 1–0 · Derby 64%, draw 22%, Wrexham 14%13' · 1–0 · Derby 64%, draw 22%, Wrexham 14%14' · 1–0 · Derby 64%, draw 22%, Wrexham 14%15' · 1–0 · Derby 64%, draw 22%, Wrexham 14%16' · 1–0 · Derby 64%, draw 22%, Wrexham 13%17' · 1–0 · Derby 64%, draw 22%, Wrexham 13%18' · 1–0 · Derby 65%, draw 22%, Wrexham 13%19' · 1–0 · Derby 65%, draw 22%, Wrexham 13%20' · 1–0 · Derby 65%, draw 22%, Wrexham 13%21' · 1–0 · Derby 65%, draw 22%, Wrexham 13%22' · 1–0 · Derby 65%, draw 22%, Wrexham 13%23' · 1–0 · Derby 65%, draw 22%, Wrexham 13%24' · 1–0 · Derby 65%, draw 22%, Wrexham 12%25' · 1–0 · Derby 65%, draw 22%, Wrexham 12%26' · 1–0 · Derby 65%, draw 22%, Wrexham 12%27' · 1–0 · Derby 66%, draw 22%, Wrexham 12%28' · 1–0 · Derby 66%, draw 22%, Wrexham 12%29' · 1–0 · Derby 66%, draw 23%, Wrexham 12%30' · 1–0 · Derby 66%, draw 23%, Wrexham 12%31' · 1–0 · Derby 66%, draw 23%, Wrexham 11%32' · 1–0 · Derby 66%, draw 23%, Wrexham 11%33' · 1–0 · Derby 66%, draw 23%, Wrexham 11%34' · 1–0 · Derby 66%, draw 23%, Wrexham 11%35' · 1–0 · Derby 67%, draw 23%, Wrexham 11%36' · 1–0 · Derby 67%, draw 23%, Wrexham 11%37' · 1–0 · Derby 67%, draw 23%, Wrexham 11%38' · 1–0 · Derby 67%, draw 23%, Wrexham 10%39' · 1–0 · Derby 67%, draw 23%, Wrexham 10%40' · 1–0 · Derby 67%, draw 23%, Wrexham 10%41' · 1–0 · Derby 68%, draw 23%, Wrexham 10%42' · 1–0 · Derby 68%, draw 23%, Wrexham 10%43' · 1–0 · Derby 68%, draw 23%, Wrexham 10%44' · 1–0 · Derby 68%, draw 23%, Wrexham 9%45' · 1–0 · Derby 68%, draw 22%, Wrexham 9%45+1' · 1–0 · Derby 69%, draw 22%, Wrexham 9%45+2' · 1–0 · Derby 69%, draw 22%, Wrexham 9%45+3' · 1–0 · Derby 69%, draw 22%, Wrexham 9%HT · 1–0 · Derby 69%, draw 22%, Wrexham 9%47' · 1–0 · Derby 69%, draw 22%, Wrexham 8%48' · 1–0 · Derby 69%, draw 22%, Wrexham 8%49' · 1–0 · Derby 70%, draw 22%, Wrexham 8%50' · 1–0 · Derby 70%, draw 22%, Wrexham 8%51' · 1–0 · Derby 70%, draw 22%, Wrexham 8%52' · 1–0 · Derby 71%, draw 22%, Wrexham 7%53' · 1–0 · Derby 71%, draw 22%, Wrexham 7%54' · 1–0 · Derby 71%, draw 22%, Wrexham 7%55' · 1–0 · Derby 72%, draw 22%, Wrexham 7%56' · 1–0 · Derby 72%, draw 22%, Wrexham 6%57' · 1–0 · Derby 72%, draw 21%, Wrexham 6%58' · 1–0 · Derby 73%, draw 21%, Wrexham 6%59' · 1–0 · Derby 73%, draw 21%, Wrexham 6%60' · 1–0 · Derby 73%, draw 21%, Wrexham 6%61' · 1–0 · Derby 74%, draw 21%, Wrexham 5%62' · 1–0 · Derby 74%, draw 21%, Wrexham 5%63' · 1–0 · Derby 74%, draw 21%, Wrexham 5%64' · 1–0 · Derby 75%, draw 20%, Wrexham 5%65' · 1–0 · Derby 75%, draw 20%, Wrexham 5%66' · 1–0 · Derby 76%, draw 20%, Wrexham 4%67' · 1–0 · Derby 76%, draw 20%, Wrexham 4%68' · 1–0 · Derby 77%, draw 19%, Wrexham 4%69' · 1–0 · Derby 77%, draw 19%, Wrexham 4%70' · 1–0 · Derby 77%, draw 19%, Wrexham 4%71' · 1–0 · Derby 78%, draw 19%, Wrexham 3%72' · 1–0 · Derby 78%, draw 18%, Wrexham 3%73' · 1–0 · Derby 79%, draw 18%, Wrexham 3%74' · 1–0 · Derby 80%, draw 18%, Wrexham 3%75' · 1–0 · Derby 80%, draw 17%, Wrexham 3%76' · 1–0 · Derby 81%, draw 17%, Wrexham 3%77' · 1–0 · Derby 81%, draw 16%, Wrexham 2%78' · 1–0 · Derby 82%, draw 16%, Wrexham 2%79' · 1–0 · Derby 83%, draw 15%, Wrexham 2%80' · 1–0 · Derby 83%, draw 15%, Wrexham 2%81' · 1–0 · Derby 84%, draw 14%, Wrexham 2%82' · 1–0 · Derby 85%, draw 14%, Wrexham 1%83' · 1–0 · Derby 85%, draw 13%, Wrexham 1%84' · 1–0 · Derby 86%, draw 13%, Wrexham 1%85' · 1–0 · Derby 87%, draw 12%, Wrexham 1%86' · 1–0 · Derby 88%, draw 11%, Wrexham 1%87' · 1–0 · Derby 89%, draw 11%, Wrexham 1%88' · 1–0 · Derby 90%, draw 10%, Wrexham 1%89' · 1–1 · Derby 9%, draw 82%, Wrexham 9%90' · 1–1 · Derby 8%, draw 84%, Wrexham 8%90+1' · 1–1 · Derby 7%, draw 86%, Wrexham 7%90+2' · 1–1 · Derby 6%, draw 88%, Wrexham 6%90+3' · 1–1 · Derby 5%, draw 91%, Wrexham 5%90+4' · 1–1 · Derby 3%, draw 93%, Wrexham 3%90+5' · 1–1 · Derby 2%, draw 96%, Wrexham 2%

Last reading, 90+5': 2% · 96% · 2%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Wrexham 36% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 5'Derby:Sondre Langas 1904 −8*
  2. 9'Derby:Sammie Szmodics 1855 −10* assist Mohammed Fuseini 1973 −8*
  3. 15'Wrexham:Oliver Rathbone 1916 −7* for Josh Windass 1895 −11*
  4. 52'Derby:Ryan Hedges 1821 −11*
  5. 64'Wrexham:Sam Smith 1909 −8* for Lewis O'Brien 1948 −8*
  6. 64'Wrexham:Danny Imray 1910 −7* for Issa Kabore 1967 −7*
  7. 71'Wrexham:Oliver Rathbone 1916 −7*
  8. 72'Derby:Henrik Wendel Meister 1530 −8* for Mohammed Fuseini 1973 −8*
  9. 72'Derby:Rhian Brewster 1990 −8* for Sammie Szmodics 1855 −10*
  10. 74'Derby:Alex Mowatt 1832 −11*
  11. 84'Derby:Oscar Fraulo 1930 −8* for Bobby Clark 1910 −8*
  12. 84'Derby:Lars-Jørgen Salvesen 1644 −10* for Carlton Morris 1905 −10*
  13. 85'Wrexham:George Dobson 1943 −9* for Zak Vyner 1952 −8*
  14. 85'Wrexham:Ryan·Longman 1949 −8* for Jacques Ekomié 1899 −6*
  15. 88'Wrexham:Oliver Rathbone 1916 −7* assist Kieffer Moore 1847 −4
  16. 90+1'Wrexham:Kieffer Moore 1847 −4

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations3-4-2-1
GJ. Vickers1833−8*
MJ. Ward1924−11*
DS. Langås1904−8*
DD. Sanderson1933−9*
FR. Hedges1821−11*
MA. Mowatt1832−11*
MD. Ozoh1890−8*
FM. Fuseini1973−8*
MS. Szmodics1855−10*
MB. Clark1910−8*
FC. Morris1905−10*
CJ. Eustace1899−8*
GA. Patterson2091−7*
DZ. Vyner1952−8*
DD. Hyam1946−8*
DJ. Worrall1910−8*
DI. Kaboré1967−7*
MB. Whiteman1897−9*
ML. O'Brien1948−8*
DJ. Ekomié1899−6*
MJ. Windass1895−11*
MC. O'Hare1998−8*
FK. Moore1847−4
CP. Parkinson1989−6*
Before kick-off: 35% · 29% · 36%(Derby · draw · Wrexham)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Derby €2.6M, Wrexham €2.6M.
  • Derby were without 2 expected starters: J. Widell Zetterström (1896) and C. Taylor (1737).
  • Home advantage made Derby the favourite: it added 7 points to their win chance.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Derby

22nd in Championship · 5 pts from 8

  • 19 SepDBurnley 1874
  • 12 SepLBirmingham 1866
  • 9 SepLWest Brom 1892
  • 5 SepLWest Ham 1857
  • 29 AugLSwansea 1861

Wrexham

14th in Championship · 10 pts from 8

  • 19 SepWSouthampton 1923
  • 11 SepLWest Ham 1942
  • 8 SepDBurnley 1924
  • 5 SepDSwansea 1947
  • 28 AugLBirmingham 1937

Season outlook

From the Championship simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Derby5 /849.30%<1%45%23rd
Wrexham10 /861.4<1%5%4%12th
Derby
Wrexham

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Championship

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

A. Mowatt
A. Mowatt

Derby · +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1843

A. Patterson
A. Patterson

Wrexham · +1.3 (Average) · Elo 2098

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

John Mark Eustace

Coach DNA: direct

Philip John Parkinson

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Derby: direct (how John Mark Eustace plays) · Wrexham: balanced profile (how Philip John Parkinson plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.