Championship · Regular Season - 14
Derby vs Norwich
Tue 3 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UTC · Pride Park, Derby
Derby host Norwich on Tue 3 Nov 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Derby 30%, draw 29%, Norwich 42%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Derby €2.5M, Norwich €5.5M.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Derby goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–29%
- 0–09%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com1–2expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl0–1expected 3.5 pts
Team Elo: Derby 1872 · Norwich 2032
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Derby · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1824
Norwich · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.7 (Good) · Elo 2119
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Derby
23rd in Championship · 6 pts from 11
- 17 OctLStoke City England Championship1873
- 14 OctLQPR England Championship1891
- 10 OctDWrexham England Championship1900
- 19 SepDBurnley England Championship1874
- 12 SepLBirmingham England Championship1866
Norwich
21st in Championship · 9 pts from 11
- 17 OctLPortsmouth England Championship2022
- 14 OctLSouthampton England Championship2036
- 10 OctLSwansea England Championship2047
- 20 SepLBolton England Championship2087
- 17 SepLManchester City England League Cup1967
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 6 /11 | 45.8 | 0% | 0% | 62% | 23rd |
| Norwich | 9 /11 | 62.0 | <1% | 4% | 3% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Derby: direct (how John Mark Eustace plays) · Norwich: possession-based (how Philippe Clement plays)