Championship · Regular Season - 15
Derby vs Bolton
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Pride Park, Derby
Derby host Bolton on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Championship); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Derby 37%, draw 29%, Bolton 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Derby €2.5M, Bolton €1.4M.
- Home advantage makes Derby the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in attacking (Championship): Derby rank #23 of 24, Bolton #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Derby goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
superbru.com2–1expected 0.7 pts
voetbalpoules.nl1–1expected 3.3 pts
Team Elo: Derby 1872 · Bolton 1933
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Derby · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1824
Bolton · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1987
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Derby
23rd in Championship · 6 pts from 11
- 17 OctLStoke City England Championship1873
- 14 OctLQPR England Championship1891
- 10 OctDWrexham England Championship1900
- 19 SepDBurnley England Championship1874
- 12 SepLBirmingham England Championship1866
Bolton
15th in Championship · 14 pts from 11
- 17 OctDSouthampton England Championship1936
- 13 OctWWolves England Championship1905
- 10 OctLStoke City England Championship1912
- 20 SepWNorwich England Championship1870
- 12 SepWCardiff England Championship1850
Season outlook
From the Championship simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Derby | 6 /11 | 45.8 | 0% | 0% | 63% | 23rd |
| Bolton | 14 /11 | 59.4 | <1% | 2% | 7% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Derby: direct (how J. Eustace plays) · Bolton: possession-based · creative (how Steven Schumacher plays)