Primera A · Clausura - 19
Deportivo Pasto vs Junior
Thu 12 Nov 2026 · 21:00 UTC · Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto
Deportivo Pasto host Junior on Thu 12 Nov 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Deportivo Pasto 41%, draw 29%, Junior 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Deportivo Pasto €286K, Junior €501K.
- Home advantage makes Deportivo Pasto the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Primera A): Deportivo Pasto rank #19 of 22, Junior #1.
- Deportivo Pasto's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.5 over 180 days.
- Junior are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Deportivo Pasto goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Deportivo Pasto 1603 · Junior 1675
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Deportivo Pasto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1633
Junior · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.8 (Good) · Elo 1756
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Deportivo Pasto
3rd in Primera A · 34 pts from 19
- 26 OctWDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1554
- 23 OctLAtletico Nacional Colombia Primera A1556
- 20 OctLAlianza Valledupar Colombia Primera A1609
- 4 OctDFortaleza FC Colombia Primera A1594
- 25 SepLChico Colombia Primera A1623
Junior
2nd in Primera A · 35 pts from 19
- 28 OctDChico Colombia Primera A1679
- 24 OctWÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1677
- 19 OctDDeportivo Cali Colombia Primera A1667
- 14 OctDDeportivo Pereira Colombia Primera A1669
- 10 OctDInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1623
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 34 /19 | 39.1 | 1% | 64% | 0% | 2nd |
| Junior | 35 /19 | 39.5 | <1% | 75% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Deportivo Pasto: balanced profile (how Jonathan Risueño plays) · Junior: balanced profile (how S. Viera plays)