Primera A · Clausura - 17
Deportivo Pasto vs Jaguares
Thu 5 Nov 2026 · 00:00 UTC · Estadio Departamental Libertad, Pasto
Deportivo Pasto host Jaguares on Thu 5 Nov 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Deportivo Pasto 58%, draw 24%, Jaguares 18%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Deportivo Pasto €288K, Jaguares €182K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (Primera A): Deportivo Pasto rank #19 of 22, Jaguares #1.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Deportivo Pasto goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–07%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Deportivo Pasto 1580 · Jaguares 1445
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Deportivo Pasto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1611
Jaguares · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Elite) · Elo 1569
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Deportivo Pasto
3rd in Primera A · 34 pts from 19
- 23 OctLAtletico Nacional Colombia Primera A1556
- 20 OctLAlianza Valledupar Colombia Primera A1609
- 4 OctDFortaleza FC Colombia Primera A1594
- 25 SepLChico Colombia Primera A1623
- 20 SepWOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1551
Jaguares
16th in Primera A · 18 pts from 19
- 22 OctLSanta Fe Colombia Primera A1454
- 17 OctLMillonarios Colombia Primera A1451
- 11 OctWDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1415
- 3 OctLÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1443
- 27 SepLAlianza Valledupar Colombia Primera A1422
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo Pasto | 34 /19 | 39.8 | <1% | 44% | 0% | 4th |
| Jaguares | 18 /19 | 23.0 | 0% | 0% | 42% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Deportivo Pasto: balanced profile (how Jonathan Risueño plays) · Jaguares: balanced profile (how H. Bodhert plays)