Primera División · Clausura - Quadrangular - 1
Deportivo La Guaira vs Metropolitanos FC
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Estadio Olimpico de la UCV, Caracas
Deportivo La Guaira host Metropolitanos FC on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Deportivo La Guaira 41%, draw 29%, Metropolitanos FC 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Deportivo La Guaira €284K, Metropolitanos FC €329K.
- Home advantage makes Deportivo La Guaira the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Metropolitanos FC are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Deportivo La Guaira goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Deportivo La Guaira 1384 · Metropolitanos FC 1388
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Deportivo La Guaira · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1410
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Deportivo La Guaira
3rd in Primera División · 44 pts from 26
- 17 OctLTrujillanos FC Venezuela Primera Division1379
- 15 SepLCarabobo FC Venezuela Primera Division1382
- 12 SepLUCV Venezuela Primera Division1342
- 6 SepWAnzoátegui FC Venezuela Primera Division1345
- 3 SepDPuerto Cabello Venezuela Primera Division1295
Metropolitanos FC
1st in Primera División · 57 pts from 26
- 18 OctDEstudiantes de Merida FC Venezuela Primera Division1334
- 16 SepWCaracas FC Venezuela Primera Division1418
- 12 SepWAnzoátegui FC Venezuela Primera Division1399
- 6 SepWMonagas SC Venezuela Primera Division1316
- 3 SepWTrujillanos FC Venezuela Primera Division1381
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportivo La Guaira | 44 /26 | 52.0 | <1% | 80% | 0% | 3rd |
| Metropolitanos FC | 57 /26 | 65.1 | 85% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –