Primera A · Clausura - 16
Deportes Tolima vs Deportivo Pasto
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 01:15 UTC · Estadio Manuel Murillo Toro
Deportes Tolima host Deportivo Pasto on Mon 26 Oct 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Deportes Tolima 60%, draw 23%, Deportivo Pasto 17%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Deportes Tolima €732K, Deportivo Pasto €297K.
- Style contrast in discipline (Primera A): Deportes Tolima rank #2 of 22, Deportivo Pasto #19.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Deportes Tolima goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Deportes Tolima 1746 · Deportivo Pasto 1590
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Deportes Tolima · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.7 (Good) · Elo 1821
Deportivo Pasto · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1633
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Deportes Tolima
6th in Primera A · 31 pts from 19
- 18 OctLÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1779
- 11 OctLJaguares Colombia Primera A1763
- 8 OctDAtletico Nacional Colombia Primera A1760
- 3 OctDChico Colombia Primera A1746
- 27 SepDFortaleza FC Colombia Primera A1747
Deportivo Pasto
3rd in Primera A · 34 pts from 19
- 4 OctDFortaleza FC Colombia Primera A1594
- 25 SepLChico Colombia Primera A1623
- 20 SepWOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1551
- 15 SepWAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1512
- 5 SepDCucuta Colombia Primera A1476
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deportes Tolima | 31 /19 | 37.5 | 0% | 14% | 0% | 6th |
| Deportivo Pasto | 34 /19 | 42.4 | 1% | 69% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Deportes Tolima: possession-based (how Luis Fernando Suárez Guzman plays) · Deportivo Pasto: balanced profile (how Matías Jonathan Risueño Luján plays)