Challenger Pro League · Regular Season - 9
Dender vs KRC Genk II
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Dender Football Complex, Denderleeuw
Dender host KRC Genk II on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Challenger Pro League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Dender 58%, draw 24%, KRC Genk II 18%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dender €397K, KRC Genk II €585K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Challenger Pro League matchday 9: 216 points.
- Challenger Pro League: N. Sattlberger is the highest-rated midfielder (1941).
- Only 0 of KRC Genk II's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Dender have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Dender goals first.
- 1–111%
- 2–010%
- 2–110%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–06%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Dender 1601 · KRC Genk II 1385
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dender · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1616
KRC Genk II · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Good) · Elo 1429
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dender
2nd in Challenger Pro League · 18 pts from 7
- 9 OctWClub Brugge II Belgium Challenger Pro League1584
- 20 SepWPatro Eisden Belgium Challenger Pro League1571
- 11 SepWKAA Gent II Belgium Challenger Pro League1552
- 4 SepWSeraing United Belgium Challenger Pro League1540
- 29 AugWLiège Belgium Challenger Pro League1524
KRC Genk II
11th in Challenger Pro League · 7 pts from 7
- 11 OctLPatro Eisden Belgium Challenger Pro League1424
- 19 SepDSeraing United Belgium Challenger Pro League1335
- 12 SepLExcelsior Virton Belgium Challenger Pro League1337
- 5 SepWSporting Hasselt Belgium Challenger Pro League1325
- 3 AprDLokeren-Temse Belgium Challenger Pro League1444
Season outlook
From the Challenger Pro League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dender | 18 /7 | 52.4 | 17% | 90% | 0% | 3rd |
| KRC Genk II | 7 /7 | 30.0 | 0% | 1% | 44% | 13th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 15th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dender: balanced profile (how Jonathan Silva de Oliveira Alves plays) · KRC Genk II: dribble-heavy (how Igor Albert Rinck de Diver Camargo plays)