Challenger Pro League · Regular Season - 7
Dender 3–0 Club Brugge II
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · Stade Van Roy, Denderleeuw
DenderTeam 1585Club Brugge IITeam 1423We gave Dender 53% to win: they did.
Before kick-off (provisional): 53% · 26% · 21%(Dender · draw · Club Brugge II)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 3–0 had 6%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Dender €374K, Club Brugge II €402K.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Challenger Pro League): Dender ranked #2 of 15, Club Brugge II #14.
- Only 1 of Club Brugge II's expected starters was past their position's peak age.
- Dender were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Dender
2nd in Challenger Pro League · 15 pts from 6
- 20 SepWPatro Eisden Belgium Challenger Pro League1571
- 11 SepWKAA Gent II Belgium Challenger Pro League1552
- 4 SepWSeraing United Belgium Challenger Pro League1540
- 29 AugWLiège Belgium Challenger Pro League1524
- 23 MayDLommel United Belgium Pro League1665
Club Brugge II
8th in Challenger Pro League · 8 pts from 5
- 18 SepDKAA Gent II Belgium Challenger Pro League1472
- 13 SepDLiège Belgium Challenger Pro League1437
- 5 SepLAS Eupen Belgium Challenger Pro League1367
- 29 AugWPatro Eisden Belgium Challenger Pro League1328
- 14 MarDSK Beveren Belgium Challenger Pro League1546
Season outlook
From the Challenger Pro League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dender | 15 /6 | 50.9 | 18% | 85% | <1% | 3rd |
| Club Brugge II | 8 /5 | 36.4 | <1% | 8% | 12% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 15th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Dender · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1593
Club Brugge II · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1569
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Dender: balanced profile (how Jonathan Silva de Oliveira Alves plays) · Club Brugge II: possession-based · dribble-heavy (how Piet Cremers plays)