Primera División · Clausura - 14
Defensor Sporting vs Penarol
Sun 15 Nov 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Defensor Sporting host Penarol on Sun 15 Nov 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Defensor Sporting 26%, draw 28%, Penarol 47%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Defensor Sporting €258K, Penarol €545K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Defensor Sporting goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–29%
- 0–08%
- 2–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Defensor Sporting 1459 · Penarol 1675
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Penarol · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1730
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Defensor Sporting
11th in Primera División - Apertura · 39 pts from 35
- 1 NovWProgreso Uruguay Primera Division1393
- 24 OctDRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1395
- 17 OctLBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1437
- 10 OctLCerro Uruguay Primera Division1460
- 3 OctLAlbion FC Uruguay Primera Division1463
Penarol
1st in Primera División - Apertura · 65 pts from 35
- 31 OctDWanderers Uruguay Primera Division1651
- 23 OctDJuventud Uruguay Primera Division1649
- 18 OctLLiverpool Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1708
- 10 OctDProgreso Uruguay Primera Division1716
- 4 OctWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1706
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 100 /72 | 101.1 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7th |
| Penarol | 144 /72 | 145.7 | 100% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile