Primera División · Clausura - 10
Defensor Sporting 2–3 Cerro
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Estadio Luis Franzini, Montevideo
Defensor SportingTeam 1480CerroTeam 1491- Xavier biscayzacu 16'
- Brian Montenegro 52'
- Agustin Miranda 77'
- Alejo Macelli 86'
- bruno morales 90+3' (pen)
We gave Defensor Sporting 40% to win: Cerro won.
- 12'Damián Suárez –Cerro:Damián Suárez –
- Xavier biscayzacu16'Defensor Sporting:Xavier biscayzacu
- Xavier biscayzacu19'Defensor Sporting:Xavier biscayzacu
- axel frugone –22'Defensor Sporting:axel frugone –
- 30'Brahian Alemán –Cerro:Brahian Alemán –
- 38'Emiliano Rodriguez –Cerro:Emiliano Rodriguez –
- 45+3'Emiliano Gaston Sosa Viera –Cerro:Emiliano Gaston Sosa Viera –
- Diego Abella – for axel frugone –46'Defensor Sporting:Diego Abella – for axel frugone –
- Nicolas Scotti – for Xavier biscayzacu46'Defensor Sporting:Nicolas Scotti – for Xavier biscayzacu
- 46'Leonardo Pais – for pablo nongoy –Cerro:Leonardo Pais – for pablo nongoy –
- Brian Montenegro –52'Defensor Sporting:Brian Montenegro –
- 57'Damián Suárez –Cerro:Damián Suárez –
- Lucas agazzi –61'Defensor Sporting:Lucas agazzi –
- 63'bruno morales – for Emiliano Rodriguez –Cerro:bruno morales – for Emiliano Rodriguez –
- 63'Ezequiel Forclaz – for Cristian Barros –Cerro:Ezequiel Forclaz – for Cristian Barros –
- 66'Agustin Miranda – for Brahian Alemán –Cerro:Agustin Miranda – for Brahian Alemán –
- alan torterolo – for Lucas agazzi –69'Defensor Sporting:alan torterolo – for Lucas agazzi –
- 71'jairo amaro –Cerro:jairo amaro –
- Nicolas Wunsch –72'Defensor Sporting:Nicolas Wunsch –
- 77'Agustin Miranda –Cerro:Agustin Miranda –
- pablo neris – for Brian Montenegro –81'Defensor Sporting:pablo neris – for Brian Montenegro –
- Tomás Pozzo – for Nicolas Wunsch –81'Defensor Sporting:Tomás Pozzo – for Nicolas Wunsch –
- 85'Yonatan Irrazábal –Cerro:Yonatan Irrazábal –
- pablo neris –85'Defensor Sporting:pablo neris –
- 86'Alejo Macelli –Cerro:Alejo Macelli –
- Tomás Pozzo –89'Defensor Sporting:Tomás Pozzo –
- Guillermo De los Santos –90'Defensor Sporting:Guillermo De los Santos –
- 90+3'bruno morales – (pen.)Cerro:bruno morales – (pen.)
Before kick-off (provisional): 40% · 29% · 31%(Defensor Sporting · draw · Cerro)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–3 had 2%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Defensor Sporting €309K, Cerro €244K.
- Home advantage made Defensor Sporting the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Defensor Sporting
11th in Primera División - Apertura · 35 pts from 31
- 3 OctLAlbion FC Uruguay Primera Division1474
- 27 SepWDanubio Uruguay Primera Division1472
- 20 SepLClub Nacional Uruguay Primera Division1462
- 13 SepWDeportivo Maldonado Uruguay Primera Division1437
- 29 AugLAtletico Torque Uruguay Primera Division1444
Cerro
13th in Primera División - Apertura · 33 pts from 31
- 4 OctLWanderers Uruguay Primera Division1497
- 27 SepDJuventud Uruguay Primera Division1513
- 19 SepLPenarol Uruguay Primera Division1505
- 13 SepWProgreso Uruguay Primera Division1478
- 6 SepWRacing Montevideo Uruguay Primera Division1479
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensor Sporting | 96 /68 | 98.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 7th |
| Cerro | 79 /68 | 81.9 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Defensor Sporting · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1695
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –