Liga Profesional Argentina · Clausura - 15
Defensa Y Justicia vs Independiente
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 22:00 UTC · Estadio Norberto Tito Tomaghello, Gobernador Julio A. Costa
Defensa Y Justicia host Independiente on Mon 2 Nov 2026 (Liga Profesional Argentina); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Defensa Y Justicia 43%, draw 28%, Independiente 29%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Defensa Y Justicia €952K, Independiente €822K.
- Home advantage makes Defensa Y Justicia the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Defensa Y Justicia goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Defensa Y Justicia 1749 · Independiente 1751
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Defensa Y Justicia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1831
Independiente · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 1823
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Defensa Y Justicia
10th in Liga Profesional · 19 pts from 16
- 16 OctLInstituto Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional1758
- 10 OctWUnion Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional1748
- 3 OctWSan Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional1708
- 18 SepDCentral Cordoba de Santiago Argentina Liga Profesional1742
- 11 SepWGimnasia M. Argentina Liga Profesional1712
Independiente
5th in Liga Profesional · 24 pts from 16
- 18 OctDRacing Club Argentina Liga Profesional1740
- 12 OctDTalleres Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional1740
- 2 OctLInstituto Cordoba Argentina Liga Profesional1761
- 19 SepWUnion Santa Fe Argentina Liga Profesional1741
- 13 SepDSan Lorenzo Argentina Liga Profesional1763
Season outlook
From the Liga Profesional Argentina simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensa Y Justicia | 19 /16 | 22.4 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 22nd |
| Independiente | 24 /16 | 28.2 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 12th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Defensa Y Justicia: possession-based (how Julio César Vaccari plays) · Independiente: balanced profile (how Jádson Viera Castro plays)