Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 12
De Graafschap vs Waalwijk
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
De Graafschap host Waalwijk on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: De Graafschap 40%, draw 29%, Waalwijk 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: De Graafschap €518K, Waalwijk €460K.
- Home advantage makes De Graafschap the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Eerste Divisie: M. Diemers is the highest-rated midfielder (1867).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. De Graafschap goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.4 pts
Team Elo: De Graafschap 1624 · Waalwijk 1635
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
De Graafschap · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1752
Waalwijk · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 1714
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
De Graafschap
15th in Eerste Divisie · 11 pts from 10
- 9 OctWJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1656
- 3 OctDFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1665
- 27 SepWDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1587
- 20 SepLNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1605
- 11 SepWEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1594
Waalwijk
10th in Eerste Divisie · 15 pts from 11
- 18 OctDFC Volendam Netherlands Eerste Divisie1676
- 9 OctLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1666
- 3 OctDEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1602
- 26 SepLRoda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1626
- 18 SepWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1651
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | 11 /10 | 50.4 | <1% | 5% | 8% | 12th |
| Waalwijk | 15 /11 | 53.6 | 1% | 11% | 2% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
De Graafschap: shot-heavy (how Thomas Duivenvoorden plays) · Waalwijk: balanced profile (how Sander Duits plays)