Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 10
De Graafschap 2–1 Jong Utrecht
Fri 9 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UTC · De Vijverberg, Dutinghem
De GraafschapTeam 1603Jong UtrechtTeam 1572We gave De Graafschap 43% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 43% · 29% · 28%(De Graafschap · draw · Jong Utrecht)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–1 had 9%.
- Average value of the starting XI: De Graafschap €500K, Jong Utrecht €386K.
- Home advantage made De Graafschap the favourite: it added 6 points to their win chance.
- Jong Utrecht's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.6 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
De Graafschap
19th in Eerste Divisie · 8 pts from 9
- 3 OctDFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1665
- 27 SepWDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1587
- 20 SepLNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1605
- 11 SepWEmmen Netherlands Eerste Divisie1594
- 4 SepLHeracles Netherlands Eerste Divisie1567
Jong Utrecht
20th in Eerste Divisie · 7 pts from 9
- 18 SepLVVV Venlo Netherlands Eerste Divisie1649
- 14 SepWJong Ajax Netherlands Eerste Divisie1616
- 11 SepWNAC Breda Netherlands Eerste Divisie1591
- 7 SepDFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1601
- 31 AugLJong AZ Netherlands Eerste Divisie1608
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | 8 /9 | 47.6 | <1% | 2% | 18% | 16th |
| Jong Utrecht | 7 /9 | 48.3 | <1% | 4% | 14% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
De Graafschap · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1710
Jong Utrecht · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1621
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
De Graafschap: shot-heavy (how Thomas Duivenvoorden plays) · Jong Utrecht: balanced profile (how Mark Otten plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.