Eerste Divisie · Regular Season - 15
De Graafschap vs FC OSS
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UTC · De Vijverberg, Doetinchem
De Graafschap host FC OSS on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Eerste Divisie); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: De Graafschap 50%, draw 27%, FC OSS 23%.
- Average value of the expected XI: De Graafschap €453K, FC OSS €273K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Eerste Divisie): De Graafschap rank #1 of 20, FC OSS #20.
- FC OSS's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. De Graafschap goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Best pick for your pool
The score with the most expected points under each pool's scoring, from the provisional chances.
voetbalpoules.nl1–0expected 3.9 pts
Team Elo: De Graafschap 1635 · FC OSS 1522
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
De Graafschap · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Good) · Elo 1820
FC OSS · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1634
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
De Graafschap
16th in Eerste Divisie · 12 pts from 12
- 27 OctLRoda Netherlands KNVB Beker1581
- 23 OctDWaalwijk Netherlands Eerste Divisie1673
- 19 OctLJong Ajax Netherlands Eerste Divisie1640
- 9 OctWJong Utrecht Netherlands Eerste Divisie1656
- 3 OctDFC Eindhoven Netherlands Eerste Divisie1665
FC OSS
14th in Eerste Divisie · 13 pts from 12
- 28 OctWPEC Zwolle Netherlands KNVB Beker1476
- 23 OctDJong Ajax Netherlands Eerste Divisie1537
- 16 OctLDen Bosch Netherlands Eerste Divisie1547
- 9 OctWHelmond Sport Netherlands Eerste Divisie1531
- 3 OctWMVV Netherlands Eerste Divisie1505
Season outlook
From the Eerste Divisie simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| De Graafschap | 12 /12 | 48.4 | 0% | 1% | 10% | 13th |
| FC OSS | 13 /12 | 41.9 | 0% | <1% | 36% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
De Graafschap: balanced profile (how Thomas Duivenvoorden plays) · FC OSS: direct · low-volume (how Sjors Ultee plays)