Primera División · Clausura - 13
Danubio vs Club Nacional
Sun 1 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC
Danubio host Club Nacional on Sun 1 Nov 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Danubio 17%, draw 23%, Club Nacional 60%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Danubio €202K, Club Nacional €900K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Primera División - Apertura Clausura - 13: 373 points.
- Primera División - Apertura: L. Mejía is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1805).
- Club Nacional have won their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Danubio goals first.
- 1–111%
- 0–210%
- 1–210%
- 0–19%
- 0–37%
- 1–37%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: Danubio 1376 · Club Nacional 1749
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Club Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Elite) · Elo 1805
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Danubio
15th in Primera División - Apertura · 32 pts from 33
- 18 OctWCentral Espanol Uruguay Primera Division1319
- 9 OctLAtletico Torque Uruguay Primera Division1375
- 4 OctWCerro Largo Uruguay Primera Division1393
- 27 SepLDefensor Sporting Uruguay Primera Division1343
- 20 SepDWanderers Uruguay Primera Division1332
Club Nacional
3rd in Primera División - Apertura · 58 pts from 33
- 19 OctWDeportivo Maldonado Uruguay Primera Division1746
- 11 OctWCentral Espanol Uruguay Primera Division1735
- 5 OctWAtletico Torque Uruguay Primera Division1710
- 26 SepWCerro Largo Uruguay Primera Division1704
- 20 SepWDefensor Sporting Uruguay Primera Division1706
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danubio | 75 /70 | 75.8 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12th |
| Club Nacional | 137 /70 | 138.8 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile