First League · Regular Season - 14
CSKA Sofia vs Slavia Sofia
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
CSKA Sofia host Slavia Sofia on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: CSKA Sofia 72%, draw 17%, Slavia Sofia 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: CSKA Sofia €1.4M, Slavia Sofia €275K.
- Draw chance 17%, below the First League average of 27% this round.
- First League: F. Lapoukhov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1908).
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. CSKA Sofia goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–19%
- 3–09%
- 1–18%
- 3–18%
- 1–08%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: CSKA Sofia 1788 · Slavia Sofia 1412
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
CSKA Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1908
Slavia Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Elite) · Elo 1486
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
CSKA Sofia
2nd in First League · 27 pts from 11
- 22 OctDFC Nordsjaelland UEFA Conference League1816
- 15 OctLMonaco UEFA Conference League1837
- 11 OctWCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1820
- 20 SepDLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1782
- 16 SepWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1776
Slavia Sofia
8th in First League · 11 pts from 11
- 10 OctLBotev Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1401
- 18 SepLCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1437
- 13 SepDSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1478
- 7 SepWDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1452
- 2 SepLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1444
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 27 /11 | 56.2 | 34% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
| Slavia Sofia | 11 /11 | 28.5 | 0% | <1% | 13% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
CSKA Sofia: creative · shot-heavy (how Markus Gisdol plays) · Slavia Sofia: balanced profile (how Ratko Dostanić plays)