First League · Regular Season - 12
CSKA Sofia vs Ludogorets
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UTC · National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia
CSKA Sofia host Ludogorets on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: CSKA Sofia 42%, draw 29%, Ludogorets 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: CSKA Sofia €1.3M, Ludogorets €1.1M.
- First League: F. Lapoukhov is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1901).
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (First League): CSKA Sofia rank #4 of 16, Ludogorets #14.
- Ludogorets are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. CSKA Sofia goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: CSKA Sofia 1787 · Ludogorets 1783
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
CSKA Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.5 (Below) · Elo 1901
Ludogorets · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Elite) · Elo 1876
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
CSKA Sofia
2nd in First League · 27 pts from 11
- 15 OctLMonaco UEFA Conference League1837
- 11 OctWCSKA 1948 Bulgarian First League1820
- 20 SepDLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1782
- 16 SepWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1776
- 12 SepWArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1716
Ludogorets
3rd in First League · 26 pts from 10
- 12 OctWArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1801
- 14 SepWSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1783
- 6 SepWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1756
- 30 AugDSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1760
- 22 AugDSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1763
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Sofia | 27 /11 | 56.5 | 38% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
| Ludogorets | 26 /10 | 55.1 | 24% | 99% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
CSKA Sofia: creative · shot-heavy (how Markus Gisdol plays) · Ludogorets: possession-based · creative (how Igor Jovičević plays)