Premier League · Regular Season - 12
CSKA Moscow vs Spartak Moscow
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 13:00 UTC · VEB Arena, Moscow
CSKA Moscow host Spartak Moscow on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Premier League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: CSKA Moscow 39%, draw 29%, Spartak Moscow 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: CSKA Moscow €3.8M, Spartak Moscow €5.5M.
- Home advantage makes CSKA Moscow the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in discipline (Premier Liga): CSKA Moscow rank #3 of 15, Spartak Moscow #12.
- CSKA Moscow's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. CSKA Moscow goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: CSKA Moscow 1916 · Spartak Moscow 1986
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
CSKA Moscow · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Elite) · Elo 2050
Spartak Moscow · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2070
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
CSKA Moscow
4th in Premier Liga · 22 pts from 11
- 18 OctLDynamo Russia Premier League1925
- 11 OctWRodina Moskva Russia Premier League1911
- 17 SepWDinamo Makhachkala Russia Premier League1886
- 12 SepDRubin Russia Premier League1922
- 5 SepWZenit Russia Premier League1895
Spartak Moscow
3rd in Premier Liga · 23 pts from 11
- 18 OctWRubin Russia Premier League1963
- 10 OctDKrylia Sovetov Russia Premier League2013
- 16 SepWFakel Russia Premier League1986
- 13 SepWFC Rostov Russia Premier League1992
- 6 SepLDynamo Russia Premier League2011
Season outlook
From the Premier League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA Moscow | 22 /11 | 52.9 | 2% | 51% | 0% | 5th |
| Spartak Moscow | 23 /11 | 57.4 | 9% | 84% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
CSKA Moscow: possession-based (how Dmitriy Igdisamov plays) · Spartak Moscow: possession-based (how Juan Carlos Carcedo Mardones plays)