First League · Regular Season - 14
CSKA 1948 vs Spartak Varna
Sat 7 Nov 2026 · 16:00 UTC · Bistritsa Stadium, Sofia
CSKA 1948 host Spartak Varna on Sat 7 Nov 2026 (First League); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: CSKA 1948 63%, draw 22%, Spartak Varna 15%.
- Average value of the expected XI: CSKA 1948 €689K, Spartak Varna €195K.
- Style contrast in dribbling (First League): CSKA 1948 rank #3 of 16, Spartak Varna #16.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. CSKA 1948 goals first.
- 2–011%
- 1–110%
- 2–110%
- 1–09%
- 3–07%
- 3–17%
- Other scores46%
Team Elo: CSKA 1948 1662 · Spartak Varna 1402
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
CSKA 1948 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1843
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
CSKA 1948
4th in First League · 22 pts from 11
- 11 OctLCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1642
- 18 SepWSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1678
- 12 SepWDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1629
- 5 SepLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1640
- 28 AugWLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1559
Spartak Varna
7th in First League · 13 pts from 11
- 10 OctWBotev Vratsa Bulgarian First League1369
- 20 SepLLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1410
- 13 SepDSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1408
- 5 SepDCSKA Sofia Bulgarian First League1374
- 30 AugDLudogorets Bulgarian First League1364
Season outlook
From the First League simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 | 22 /11 | 47.1 | 1% | 76% | 0% | 4th |
| Spartak Varna | 13 /11 | 30.5 | 0% | <1% | 7% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
CSKA 1948: balanced profile (how Aleksandar Aleksandrov plays) · Spartak Varna: low-volume (how V. Petrov plays)