First League · Regular Season - 11
CSKA 1948 2–3 CSKA Sofia
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 17:00 UTC · Bistritsa Stadium, Bistritsa
CSKA 1948Team 1625CSKA SofiaTeam 1783- Elias Correa Franco 56'
- Atanas Iliev 68'
- Bruno Jordão 19', 90'
- Ioannis Pittas 28'
We gave CSKA Sofia 42% to win: they did.
- 19'Bruno Jordão 1865 +4* assist Stefano Sensi 1790 +6*CSKA Sofia:Bruno Jordão 1865 +4* assist Stefano Sensi 1790 +6*
- Hector Cuellar 1787 −14*28'CSKA 1948:Hector Cuellar 1787 −14*
- 28'Ioannis Pittas 1879 +10 assist Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira 1772 +10*CSKA Sofia:Ioannis Pittas 1879 +10 assist Leonardo Augusto dos Santos Pereira 1772 +10*
- 46'Andrey Yordanov 1613 for Ángelo Martino 1857 +4*CSKA Sofia:Andrey Yordanov 1613 for Ángelo Martino 1857 +4*
- Atanas Iliev 1516 for Mamadou Diallo 1697 −10*46'CSKA 1948:Atanas Iliev 1516 for Mamadou Diallo 1697 −10*
- Dragan Grivić 1672 −10*48'CSKA 1948:Dragan Grivić 1672 −10*
- Elias Correa Franco 1576 −10*56'CSKA 1948:Elias Correa Franco 1576 −10*
- 56'Fedor·Lapoukhov 1909 +10CSKA Sofia:Fedor·Lapoukhov 1909 +10
- Elias Correa Franco 1576 −10*63'CSKA 1948:Elias Correa Franco 1576 −10*
- Atanas Iliev 151668'CSKA 1948:Atanas Iliev 1516
- 70'Stefano Sensi 1790 +6*CSKA Sofia:Stefano Sensi 1790 +6*
- 70'Cătălin Itu 1518 for Ioannis Pittas 1879 +10CSKA Sofia:Cătălin Itu 1518 for Ioannis Pittas 1879 +10
- 71'Santiago Godoy 1772 for Joel·Zwarts 1656 +17*CSKA Sofia:Santiago Godoy 1772 for Joel·Zwarts 1656 +17*
- 73'CSKA Sofia:
- danilo terasenko for Dragan Grivić 1672 −10*73'CSKA 1948:danilo terasenko for Dragan Grivić 1672 −10*
- 75'Bruno Jordão 1865 +4*CSKA Sofia:Bruno Jordão 1865 +4*
- Petar Vitanov 1665 for Moataz Zemzemi 1493 −8*84'CSKA 1948:Petar Vitanov 1665 for Moataz Zemzemi 1493 −8*
- 86'James Eto'o 1854 for Max Ebong 1844 +13CSKA Sofia:James Eto'o 1854 for Max Ebong 1844 +13
- 90'Bruno Jordão 1865 +4*CSKA Sofia:Bruno Jordão 1865 +4*
- Florian Krebs 1453 for Elias Correa Franco 1576 −10*90+1'CSKA 1948:Florian Krebs 1453 for Elias Correa Franco 1576 −10*
- 90+3'CSKA Sofia:
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 29% · 29% · 42%(CSKA 1948 · draw · CSKA Sofia)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 2–3 had 2%.
- Average value of the starting XI: CSKA 1948 €557K, CSKA Sofia €1.4M.
- First League: F. Lapoukhov was the highest-rated goalkeeper (1899).
- CSKA Sofia were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
CSKA 1948
4th in First League · 22 pts from 10
- 18 SepWSlavia Sofia Bulgarian First League1678
- 12 SepWDunav Ruse Bulgarian First League1629
- 5 SepLLevski Sofia Bulgarian First League1640
- 28 AugWLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1559
- 23 AugLSeptemvri Sofia Bulgarian First League1559
CSKA Sofia
2nd in First League · 24 pts from 10
- 20 SepDLokomotiv Plovdiv Bulgarian First League1782
- 16 SepWLokomotiv Sofia Bulgarian First League1776
- 12 SepWArda Kardzhali Bulgarian First League1716
- 5 SepDSpartak Varna Bulgarian First League1831
- 30 AugWCherno More Varna Bulgarian First League1734
Season outlook
From the First League simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CSKA 1948 | 22 /10 | 48.5 | 5% | 81% | 0% | 4th |
| CSKA Sofia | 24 /10 | 54.8 | 34% | 98% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 14th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
CSKA 1948 · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Elite) · Elo 1855
CSKA Sofia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.0 (Average) · Elo 1899
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
CSKA 1948: balanced profile (how Aleksandar Aleksandrov plays) · CSKA Sofia: creative · shot-heavy (how Daniel Alexandre Morales Batagello plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.