Serie A · Regular Season - 29
Cruzeiro 2–0 Sao Paulo
Thu 8 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estádio Mineirão, Bello Harisanta
CruzeiroTeam 2056Sao PauloTeam 1860We gave Cruzeiro 64% to win: they did.
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 64% · 22% · 14%(Cruzeiro · draw · Sao Paulo)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (11%), and that was the result.
- Average value of the starting XI: Cruzeiro €3.5M, Sao Paulo €2.7M.
- Sao Paulo were without 4 expected starters: Rafael (1869), Iago (1827), Domingos Duarte (1970) and Luciano (1886).
- Cruzeiro's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cruzeiro
6th in Série A · 45 pts from 28
- 20 SepWVitoria Brazil Serie A1980
- 13 SepLSantos Brazil Serie A2023
- 6 SepWAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A2016
- 30 AugLVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1891
- 26 AugDAtletico-MG Brazil Copa do Brasil2017
Sao Paulo
10th in Série A · 36 pts from 28
- 2 OctLSantos Brazil Serie A1880
- 20 SepWInternacional Brazil Serie A1863
- 16 SepDBoca Juniors Copa Sudamericana1891
- 12 SepLPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1859
- 9 SepLBoca Juniors Copa Sudamericana1922
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 45 /28 | 60.7 | 0% | 37% | 0% | 5th |
| Sao Paulo | 36 /28 | 49.4 | 0% | <1% | 1% | 10th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cruzeiro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.0 (Elite) · Elo 2089
Sao Paulo · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1956
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cruzeiro: balanced profile (how Artur Jorge Torres Gomes Araújo Amorim plays) · Sao Paulo: possession-based (how Dorival Silvestre Júnior plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.