Serie A · Regular Season - 35
Cruzeiro vs Palmeiras
Wed 18 Nov 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
Cruzeiro host Palmeiras on Wed 18 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cruzeiro 37%, draw 29%, Palmeiras 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cruzeiro €4.7M, Palmeiras €7.4M.
- Home advantage makes Cruzeiro the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (Série A): Cruzeiro rank #18 of 20, Palmeiras #4.
- Cruzeiro's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.8 over 180 days.
- Palmeiras' expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.2 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cruzeiro goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Cruzeiro 2021 · Palmeiras 2154
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cruzeiro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.9 (Elite) · Elo 2133
Palmeiras · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +11.4 (Elite) · Elo 2132
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cruzeiro
3rd in Série A · 57 pts from 33
- 29 OctWAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A2050
- 23 OctWRemo Brazil Serie A2044
- 18 OctWGremio Brazil Serie A2024
- 13 OctLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2009
- 8 OctWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A2013
Palmeiras
2nd in Série A · 70 pts from 33
- 1 NovWVasco Da Gama Brazil Copa do Brasil2176
- 28 OctDSantos Brazil Serie A2171
- 24 OctWRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2144
- 22 OctLFluminense Copa Libertadores2181
- 17 OctWAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A2161
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 57 /33 | 65.2 | 0% | 86% | 0% | 3rd |
| Palmeiras | 70 /33 | 79.7 | 12% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cruzeiro: balanced profile (how Artur Jorge plays) · Palmeiras: shot-heavy (how Abel Ferreira plays)