Serie A · Regular Season - 34
Cruzeiro vs Bahia
Fri 6 Nov 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Estádio Mineirão, Belo Horizonte
Cruzeiro host Bahia on Fri 6 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cruzeiro 55%, draw 25%, Bahia 20%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cruzeiro €4.6M, Bahia €3.0M.
- Cruzeiro's expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cruzeiro goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–110%
- 2–010%
- 1–010%
- 0–07%
- 3–16%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Cruzeiro 2010 · Bahia 1921
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cruzeiro · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +8.0 (Elite) · Elo 2119
Bahia · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.4 (Good) · Elo 1969
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cruzeiro
4th in Série A · 51 pts from 31
- 18 OctWGremio Brazil Serie A2027
- 13 OctLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A2009
- 8 OctWSao Paulo Brazil Serie A2013
- 20 SepWVitoria Brazil Serie A1980
- 13 SepLSantos Brazil Serie A2023
Bahia
7th in Série A · 49 pts from 31
- 18 OctLFlamengo Brazil Serie A1932
- 11 OctWMirassol Brazil Serie A1910
- 9 OctLPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1941
- 20 SepLAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1930
- 14 SepWRemo Brazil Serie A1925
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cruzeiro | 51 /31 | 62.4 | 0% | 54% | 0% | 3rd |
| Bahia | 49 /31 | 58.2 | 0% | 13% | 0% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cruzeiro: balanced profile (how Artur Jorge plays) · Bahia: possession-based (how Rogério Ceni plays)