Serie B · Regular Season - 36
Criciuma vs Ponte Preta
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC
Criciuma host Ponte Preta on Fri 30 Oct 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Criciuma 73%, draw 17%, Ponte Preta 10%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Criciuma €378K, Ponte Preta €193K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of Serie B matchday 36: 328 points.
- Draw chance 17%, below the Serie B average of 26% this round.
- Ponte Preta's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.6 over 180 days.
- All 11 of Criciuma's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Criciuma goals first.
- 2–011%
- 2–19%
- 3–09%
- 1–18%
- 3–18%
- 1–08%
- Other scores47%
Team Elo: Criciuma 1704 · Ponte Preta 1376
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Criciuma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1768
Ponte Preta · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.1 (Average) · Elo 1389
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Criciuma
5th in Serie B · 59 pts from 34
- 18 OctWSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1686
- 12 OctWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1679
- 8 OctLCeara Brazil Serie B1690
- 2 OctWLondrina Brazil Serie B1668
- 27 SepWAvai Brazil Serie B1646
Ponte Preta
20th in Serie B · 14 pts from 34
- 16 OctDAtletico Goianiense Brazil Serie B1357
- 12 OctLNovorizontino Brazil Serie B1381
- 7 OctLJuventude Brazil Serie B1384
- 3 OctLCuiaba Brazil Serie B1406
- 29 SepLBotafogo SP Brazil Serie B1438
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 59 /34 | 64.9 | 4% | 50% | 0% | 5th |
| Ponte Preta | 14 /34 | 17.0 | 0% | 0% | 100% | 20th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Criciuma: balanced profile · Ponte Preta: balanced profile (how Gilson Kleina plays)