Serie B · Regular Season - 38
Criciuma vs Novorizontino
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 19:30 UTC · Estadio Heriberto Hülse, Chrissyuma
Criciuma host Novorizontino on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (Serie B); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Criciuma 39%, draw 29%, Novorizontino 32%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Criciuma €378K, Novorizontino €547K.
- Home advantage makes Criciuma the favourite here: it adds 11 points to their win chance.
- Serie B: Jordi is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1891).
- All 11 of Criciuma's expected starters are past their position's peak age.
- Novorizontino are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Criciuma goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Criciuma 1702 · Novorizontino 1786
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Criciuma · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.8 (Good) · Elo 1751
Novorizontino · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1938
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Criciuma
5th in Serie B · 59 pts from 35
- 24 OctLSport Recife Brazil Serie B1731
- 18 OctWSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1686
- 12 OctWAmerica Mineiro Brazil Serie B1679
- 8 OctLCeara Brazil Serie B1690
- 2 OctWLondrina Brazil Serie B1668
Novorizontino
1st in Serie B · 64 pts from 35
- 24 OctWAtletico Goianiense Brazil Serie B1745
- 18 OctDVila Nova Brazil Serie B1764
- 12 OctWPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1727
- 8 OctWNautico Recife Brazil Serie B1776
- 2 OctWGoias Brazil Serie B1764
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Criciuma | 59 /35 | 63.9 | <1% | 35% | 0% | 5th |
| Novorizontino | 64 /35 | 69.0 | 56% | 99% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Criciuma: balanced profile · Novorizontino: balanced profile (how Enderson Moreira plays)