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League Two · Regular Season - 11

Crewe 3–2 Rochdale

Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · Alexandra Stadium, Crewe

Crewe crestCreweTeam 1709
3–2
Full time
HT 2–0
Rochdale crestRochdaleTeam 1516

Match story

Crewe · draw · Rochdale

Before kick-off: 57% · 24% · 19%

Live chances: Crewe 97%, draw 3%, Rochdale 0% at 90+4'2' · 0–0 · Crewe 57%, draw 25%, Rochdale 19%3' · 0–0 · Crewe 57%, draw 25%, Rochdale 19%4' · 0–0 · Crewe 56%, draw 25%, Rochdale 19%5' · 0–0 · Crewe 56%, draw 25%, Rochdale 19%6' · 0–0 · Crewe 56%, draw 25%, Rochdale 19%7' · 0–0 · Crewe 56%, draw 25%, Rochdale 19%8' · 0–0 · Crewe 56%, draw 25%, Rochdale 19%9' · 0–0 · Crewe 56%, draw 25%, Rochdale 19%10' · 0–0 · Crewe 55%, draw 26%, Rochdale 19%11' · 0–0 · Crewe 55%, draw 26%, Rochdale 19%12' · 0–0 · Crewe 55%, draw 26%, Rochdale 19%13' · 0–0 · Crewe 55%, draw 26%, Rochdale 19%14' · 0–0 · Crewe 55%, draw 26%, Rochdale 19%15' · 0–0 · Crewe 54%, draw 26%, Rochdale 19%16' · 0–0 · Crewe 54%, draw 27%, Rochdale 19%17' · 0–0 · Crewe 54%, draw 27%, Rochdale 19%18' · 0–0 · Crewe 54%, draw 27%, Rochdale 19%19' · 0–0 · Crewe 54%, draw 27%, Rochdale 19%20' · 0–0 · Crewe 53%, draw 27%, Rochdale 19%21' · 0–0 · Crewe 53%, draw 27%, Rochdale 19%22' · 0–0 · Crewe 53%, draw 28%, Rochdale 19%23' · 0–0 · Crewe 53%, draw 28%, Rochdale 19%24' · 0–0 · Crewe 52%, draw 28%, Rochdale 20%25' · 0–0 · Crewe 52%, draw 28%, Rochdale 20%26' · 0–0 · Crewe 52%, draw 28%, Rochdale 20%27' · 0–0 · Crewe 52%, draw 29%, Rochdale 20%28' · 0–0 · Crewe 52%, draw 29%, Rochdale 20%29' · 0–0 · Crewe 51%, draw 29%, Rochdale 20%30' · 0–0 · Crewe 51%, draw 29%, Rochdale 20%31' · 0–0 · Crewe 51%, draw 29%, Rochdale 20%32' · 0–0 · Crewe 51%, draw 30%, Rochdale 20%33' · 0–0 · Crewe 50%, draw 30%, Rochdale 20%34' · 0–0 · Crewe 50%, draw 30%, Rochdale 20%35' · 0–0 · Crewe 50%, draw 30%, Rochdale 20%36' · 0–0 · Crewe 49%, draw 31%, Rochdale 20%37' · 0–0 · Crewe 49%, draw 31%, Rochdale 20%38' · 0–0 · Crewe 49%, draw 31%, Rochdale 20%39' · 0–0 · Crewe 49%, draw 32%, Rochdale 20%40' · 1–0 · Crewe 78%, draw 16%, Rochdale 6%41' · 1–0 · Crewe 78%, draw 16%, Rochdale 6%42' · 1–0 · Crewe 78%, draw 16%, Rochdale 5%43' · 1–0 · Crewe 78%, draw 16%, Rochdale 5%44' · 1–0 · Crewe 78%, draw 16%, Rochdale 5%45' · 2–0 · Crewe 95%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%45+1' · 2–0 · Crewe 95%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%45+2' · 2–0 · Crewe 95%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%HT · 2–0 · Crewe 95%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%47' · 2–0 · Crewe 95%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%48' · 2–0 · Crewe 95%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%49' · 2–0 · Crewe 96%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%50' · 2–0 · Crewe 96%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%51' · 2–0 · Crewe 96%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%52' · 2–0 · Crewe 96%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%53' · 2–0 · Crewe 96%, draw 4%, Rochdale 1%54' · 2–0 · Crewe 96%, draw 3%, Rochdale 1%55' · 2–0 · Crewe 96%, draw 3%, Rochdale 1%56' · 2–0 · Crewe 96%, draw 3%, Rochdale 1%57' · 3–0 · Crewe 99%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%58' · 3–0 · Crewe 99%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%59' · 3–0 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%60' · 3–0 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%61' · 3–0 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%62' · 3–0 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%63' · 3–0 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%64' · 3–0 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%65' · 3–0 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%66' · 3–1 · Crewe 97%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%67' · 3–1 · Crewe 97%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%68' · 3–1 · Crewe 97%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%70' · 3–1 · Crewe 98%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%71' · 3–1 · Crewe 98%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%72' · 3–1 · Crewe 98%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%73' · 3–1 · Crewe 98%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%74' · 3–1 · Crewe 98%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%75' · 3–1 · Crewe 98%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%76' · 3–1 · Crewe 98%, draw 2%, Rochdale 0%77' · 3–1 · Crewe 98%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%78' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%79' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%80' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%81' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%82' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%83' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%84' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%85' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%86' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%87' · 3–1 · Crewe 99%, draw 1%, Rochdale 0%88' · 3–1 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%89' · 3–1 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%90' · 3–1 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%90+1' · 3–1 · Crewe 100%, draw 0%, Rochdale 0%90+2' · 3–2 · Crewe 94%, draw 5%, Rochdale 0%90+3' · 3–2 · Crewe 96%, draw 4%, Rochdale 0%90+4' · 3–2 · Crewe 97%, draw 3%, Rochdale 0%

Last reading, 90+4': 97% · 3% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Crewe 57% to win: they did.

  1. 39'Crewe:Matúš Holíček 1719 +27 assist Jordan Gibson 1826 +32
  2. 45'Crewe:Jordan Gibson 1826 +32 assist Owen lunt 1691 +22
  3. 45'Crewe:Conor Thomas 1499 +11 for Matúš Holíček 1719 +27
  4. 50'Crewe:Joe White 1725 +13
  5. 55'Crewe:Jordan Gibson 1826 +32 assist Kyle Ure 1443 +31
  6. 60'Crewe:Calum·Agius 1677 +7 for Joe White 1725 +13
  7. 63'Rochdale:Emmanuel Dieseruvwe 1108 −4 for Dajaune Brown 1715 −3
  8. 63'Rochdale:Edward Francis 1651 −1 for Cian Hayes 1737 −4
  9. 63'Rochdale:sam beckwith 1333 0 for Charlie Tasker 1708 −3
  10. 65'Rochdale:Joel Tabiner 1701 +18 (own goal)
  11. 75'Crewe:Stan Dancey 1345 +7 for Jordan Gibson 1826 +32
  12. 75'Crewe:Reece Hutchinson 1715 −5* for Kyle Ure 1443 +31
  13. 75'Crewe:Adrien thibaut 1599 +4 for Joel Tabiner 1701 +18
  14. 79'Rochdale:Zain Silcott-Duberry 1012 0 for Babajide Ezekiel Adeeko 1790 −7
  15. 90'Rochdale:Aden Flint 1641 −12 assist Edward Francis 1651 −1

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GT. Booth1758+18
DL. Billington1777+17
DL. Offord1911+10
DJ. Stephenson1942+8
DKyle Ure1443+31
MM. Holíček1719+27
MJ. White1725+13
MJ. Tabiner1701+18
MO. Lunt1691+22
MJ. Gibson1826+32
FJ. March1766+16
CLee Bell1819+28
GSam William John Waller15040
DC. Tasker1708−3
DA. Flint1641−12
DKaiden Wilson14310
DO. Adebayo-Rowling1353−2
MH. Gilmour1328−1
MB. Adeeko1790−7
MC. Hayes1737−4
MKane Taylor13760
MG. Middleton1773−8
FD. Brown1715−3
CIan Watson15020
Before kick-off: 57% · 24% · 19%(Crewe · draw · Rochdale)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 3–2 had 3%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Crewe €356K, Rochdale €398K.
  • Rochdale's expected eleven was out of form: average -1.4 over 180 days.
  • Crewe were unbeaten in their last 5 matches.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Crewe

3rd in League Two · 18 pts from 10

  • 10 OctWSwindon Town 1690
  • 6 OctDBlackpool 1568
  • 3 OctWBristol Rovers 1647
  • 26 SepDRotherham 1654
  • 22 SepWAston Villa U21 1536

Rochdale

10th in League Two · 14 pts from 10

  • 10 OctDTranmere 1595
  • 6 OctLHuddersfield 1384
  • 3 OctWSwindon Town 1633
  • 26 SepWFleetwood Town 1534
  • 22 SepDLiverpool U21 1334

Season outlook

From the League Two simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Crewe18 /1073.99%55%0%2nd
Rochdale14 /1057.30%2%13%18th
Crewe
Rochdale

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: League Two

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

J. Gibson
J. Gibson

Crewe · +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1794

A. Flint
A. Flint

Rochdale · +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1652

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Lee Bell

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Ian Watson

Coach DNA: –

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.