League Two · Regular Season - 15
Crewe vs Newport County
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · Alexandra Stadium, Crewe
Crewe host Newport County on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Crewe 52%, draw 26%, Newport County 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Crewe €360K, Newport County €154K.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Crewe goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Crewe 1718 · Newport County 1587
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Crewe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Average) · Elo 1808
Newport County · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1572
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Crewe
4th in League Two · 21 pts from 13
- 24 OctLChesterfield England League Two1744
- 20 OctLExeter City England League Two1745
- 17 OctWRochdale England League Two1725
- 10 OctWSwindon Town England League Two1690
- 6 OctDBlackpool England EFL Trophy1568
Newport County
16th in League Two · 15 pts from 13
- 24 OctLCheltenham England League Two1566
- 20 OctDRotherham England League Two1596
- 17 OctDYork England League Two1574
- 10 OctWColchester England League Two1590
- 6 OctDPlymouth England EFL Trophy1513
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crewe | 21 /13 | 71.1 | 2% | 45% | <1% | 3rd |
| Newport County | 15 /13 | 55.3 | 0% | 2% | 23% | 22nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Crewe: balanced profile (how Lee Bell plays) · Newport County: balanced profile (how H. Mullins plays)