Serie B · Regular Season - 34
CRB 0–1 Botafogo SP
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio Rei Pelé, Maceio
CRBTeam 1721Botafogo SPTeam 1495- Hygor 79'
We gave CRB 66% to win: Botafogo SP won.
- 22'Rafael Gava 1594 +12 (penalty missed)Botafogo SP:Rafael Gava 1594 +12 (penalty missed)
- Matheus Simonete Bressanelli 1656 −2522'CRB:Matheus Simonete Bressanelli 1656 −25
- 45+1'Gabriel de Souza Inocencio 1583 +21Botafogo SP:Gabriel de Souza Inocencio 1583 +21
- Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues 1716 −855'CRB: Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues 1716 −8
- 58'Darlan Batista Cobo Da Silva 1436 +27Botafogo SP:Darlan Batista Cobo Da Silva 1436 +27
- 61'Patrick Brey 1678 +13Botafogo SP:Patrick Brey 1678 +13
- 61'Hebert Willian Badaro Oliveira 1416 +36 for Darlan Batista Cobo Da Silva 1436 +27Botafogo SP:Hebert Willian Badaro Oliveira 1416 +36 for Darlan Batista Cobo Da Silva 1436 +27
- Vinicius Barata 1138 −1 for Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues 1716 −863'CRB:Vinicius Barata 1138 −1 for Thiago Fernandes Rodrigues 1716 −8
- Diogo Hereda da Silva 1700 −968'CRB:Diogo Hereda da Silva 1700 −9
- Kevin 1649 −2 for Diogo Hereda da Silva 1700 −972'CRB:Kevin 1649 −2 for Diogo Hereda da Silva 1700 −9
- 72'Felipe Vieira Augusto 1526 +7* for José Hugo Sousa dos Santos 1643 +14Botafogo SP:Felipe Vieira Augusto 1526 +7* for José Hugo Sousa dos Santos 1643 +14
- 72'Thiago Henrique Moraes 1330 +26 for Rafael Gava 1594 +12Botafogo SP:Thiago Henrique Moraes 1330 +26 for Rafael Gava 1594 +12
- 72'Matheus Sales 1560 +2 for Marco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi 1401 +35Botafogo SP:Matheus Sales 1560 +2 for Marco Antonio de Freitas Batistussi 1401 +35
- 79'Hygor 1606 +61 assist Thiago Henrique Moraes 1330 +26Botafogo SP:Hygor 1606 +61 assist Thiago Henrique Moraes 1330 +26
- Estevão Barreto de Oliveira 1385 −8* for Daniel Sampaio Simões 1695 −3080'CRB:Estevão Barreto de Oliveira 1385 −8* for Daniel Sampaio Simões 1695 −30
- Ygor Catatau 1524 −3 for Mikael 1737 −1380'CRB:Ygor Catatau 1524 −3 for Mikael 1737 −13
- Geovane 1557 −1 for Pedro Castro 1649 −1180'CRB:Geovane 1557 −1 for Pedro Castro 1649 −11
- Vinicius Barata 1138 −186'CRB:Vinicius Barata 1138 −1
- 89'Yuri Felipe Santos da Conceição 1367 −6* for Leandro Maciel 1610 +47Botafogo SP:Yuri Felipe Santos da Conceição 1367 −6* for Leandro Maciel 1610 +47
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 66% · 20% · 14%(CRB · draw · Botafogo SP)
Our most likely score was 2–0 (10%); the result 0–1 had 3%.
- Average value of the starting XI: CRB €471K, Botafogo SP €275K.
- Style contrast in chance creation (Serie B): CRB ranked #4 of 23, Botafogo SP #23.
- CRB's expected eleven was in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.3 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
CRB
7th in Serie B · 52 pts from 33
- 12 OctDFortaleza EC Brazil Serie B1713
- 7 OctWAtletico Goianiense Brazil Serie B1690
- 2 OctLSão Bernardo Brazil Serie B1705
- 27 SepWCuiaba Brazil Serie B1681
- 20 SepLPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1698
Botafogo SP
16th in Serie B · 41 pts from 33
- 13 OctWCeara Brazil Serie B1579
- 7 OctWOperario-PR Brazil Serie B1534
- 3 OctLVila Nova Brazil Serie B1582
- 29 SepWPonte Preta Brazil Serie B1574
- 19 SepDAthletic Club Brazil Serie B1544
Season outlook
From the Serie B simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CRB | 52 /33 | 60.4 | 0% | 7% | 0% | 6th |
| Botafogo SP | 41 /33 | 46.8 | 0% | 0% | <1% | 16th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
CRB · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +9.0 (Elite) · Elo 1740
Botafogo SP · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.3 (Elite) · Elo 1366
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
CRB: balanced profile (how Fábio Henrique Matias plays) · Botafogo SP: balanced profile (how Cláudio Aparecido Tencati plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.