League Two · Regular Season - 16
Crawley Town vs Fleetwood Town
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · The Broadfield Stadium, Crawley
Crawley Town host Fleetwood Town on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Crawley Town 34%, draw 29%, Fleetwood Town 37%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Crawley Town €175K, Fleetwood Town €200K.
- Fleetwood Town's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.7 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Crawley Town goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–19%
- 1–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Crawley Town 1564 · Fleetwood Town 1648
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Crawley Town · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.0 (Average) · Elo 1686
Fleetwood Town · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.9 (Below) · Elo 1638
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Crawley Town
24th in League Two · 9 pts from 12
- 10 NovLBrentford U21 England EFL Trophy1520
- 31 OctWOldham England League Two1564
- 24 OctDTranmere England League Two1571
- 20 OctLShrewsbury England League Two1543
- 17 OctLSalford City England League Two1499
Fleetwood Town
16th in League Two · 17 pts from 14
- 7 NovDRochdale England FA Cup1686
- 31 OctWBristol Rovers England League Two1664
- 27 OctDArsenal England League Cup1616
- 24 OctLExeter City England League Two1621
- 20 OctLCheltenham England League Two1675
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Crawley Town | 9 /12 | 47.8 | 0% | <1% | 62% | 24th |
| Fleetwood Town | 17 /14 | 60.9 | 0% | 6% | 7% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Crawley Town: possession-based (how Kevin Blackwell plays) · Fleetwood Town: balanced profile (how Matthew Lawlor plays)