Ekstraklasa · Regular Season - 10
Cracovia Krakow 3–1 Zaglebie Lubin
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 12:45 UTC · Marshal Józef Piłsudski Stadium, Krakow
Cracovia KrakowTeam 1673Zaglebie LubinTeam 1678Match story
Cracovia Krakow · draw · Zaglebie LubinBefore kick-off: 42% · 29% · 28%
Last reading, 90+18': 100% · 0% · 0%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Ajdin Hasić 54', 90+8' (pen)
- Aleks Lawniczak 27'
We gave Cracovia Krakow 42% to win: they did.
- 27'Aleks Lawniczak 1738 −38*Zaglebie Lubin:Aleks Lawniczak 1738 −38*
- Amir Al-Ammari 1722 +5*29'Cracovia Krakow:Amir Al-Ammari 1722 +5*
- 53'Zlatan Alomerović 1766 −23*Zaglebie Lubin:Zlatan Alomerović 1766 −23*
- Ajdin Hasić 1767 +30* (pen.)54'Cracovia Krakow:Ajdin Hasić 1767 +30* (pen.)
- 64'Josip Ćorluka 1687 −12* for Mateusz Grzybek 1665 −12*Zaglebie Lubin:Josip Ćorluka 1687 −12* for Mateusz Grzybek 1665 −12*
- 68'Josip Ćorluka 1687 −12*Zaglebie Lubin:Josip Ćorluka 1687 −12*
- 70'David Čolina 1641 −9*Zaglebie Lubin:David Čolina 1641 −9*
- sayfallah ltaief 1768 +1*71'Cracovia Krakow:sayfallah ltaief 1768 +1*
- 73'Damian Michalski 1688 −9* for David Čolina 1641 −9*Zaglebie Lubin:Damian Michalski 1688 −9* for David Čolina 1641 −9*
- 73'Szymon Lyczko 1365 −8* for Filip Szymczak 1643 −9*Zaglebie Lubin:Szymon Lyczko 1365 −8* for Filip Szymczak 1643 −9*
- 73'Sebastian Kerk 1569 −12* for Jakub·Sypek 1608 −8*Zaglebie Lubin:Sebastian Kerk 1569 −12* for Jakub·Sypek 1608 −8*
- Martin Minchev 1769 +2 for sayfallah ltaief 1768 +1*74'Cracovia Krakow:Martin Minchev 1769 +2 for sayfallah ltaief 1768 +1*
- Mohamed Berte 1593 −5* for Mateusz Klich 1576 +4*80'Cracovia Krakow:Mohamed Berte 1593 −5* for Mateusz Klich 1576 +4*
- Ajdin Hasić 1767 +30* (pen.)90+8'Cracovia Krakow:Ajdin Hasić 1767 +30* (pen.)
- 90+9'Mihael Mlinarić 1564 −8* for Roman Yakuba 1751 −25*Zaglebie Lubin:Mihael Mlinarić 1564 −8* for Roman Yakuba 1751 −25*
- Kamil Glik 1272 −19* for Ajdin Hasić 1767 +30*90+10'Cracovia Krakow:Kamil Glik 1272 −19* for Ajdin Hasić 1767 +30*
- 90+11'Leszek OjrzynskiZaglebie Lubin:Leszek Ojrzynski
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 42% · 29% · 28%(Cracovia Krakow · draw · Zaglebie Lubin)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%); the result 3–1 had 4%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Cracovia Krakow €763K, Zaglebie Lubin €656K.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cracovia Krakow
14th in Ekstraklasa · 8 pts from 9
- 19 SepLGKS Katowice Ekstraklasa1681
- 13 SepLWisla Plock Ekstraklasa1725
- 6 SepLGornik Zabrze Ekstraklasa1734
- 29 AugLRadomiak Radom Ekstraklasa1727
- 21 AugWWieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa1689
Zaglebie Lubin
8th in Ekstraklasa · 15 pts from 9
- 20 SepLWisla Plock Ekstraklasa1683
- 15 SepWRaków Częstochowa Ekstraklasa1660
- 12 SepWGKS Katowice Ekstraklasa1634
- 7 SepDWieczysta Kraków Ekstraklasa1677
- 29 AugDPogon Szczecin Ekstraklasa1650
Season outlook
From the Ekstraklasa simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cracovia Krakow | 8 /9 | 41.3 | 0% | 2% | 17% | 13th |
| Zaglebie Lubin | 15 /9 | 44.5 | 0% | 4% | 7% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 18th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cracovia Krakow · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1572
Zaglebie Lubin · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1641
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cracovia Krakow: balanced profile (how Bartosz Piotr Grzelak plays) · Zaglebie Lubin: direct (how Leszek Ojrzynski plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.