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Premier League · Regular Season - 6

Coventry 4–1 Newcastle

Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Coventry Building Society Arena, Coventry

Coventry crestCoventryTeam 2062
4–1
Full time
HT 1–0
Newcastle crestNewcastleTeam 2324

Match story

Coventry · draw · Newcastle

Before kick-off: 23% · 26% · 51%

Live chances: Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0% at 90+5'2' · 0–0 · Coventry 23%, draw 26%, Newcastle 51%3' · 0–0 · Coventry 23%, draw 26%, Newcastle 51%4' · 0–0 · Coventry 23%, draw 26%, Newcastle 51%5' · 0–0 · Coventry 23%, draw 26%, Newcastle 51%6' · 1–0 · Coventry 49%, draw 25%, Newcastle 26%7' · 1–0 · Coventry 49%, draw 25%, Newcastle 26%8' · 1–0 · Coventry 49%, draw 25%, Newcastle 26%9' · 1–0 · Coventry 49%, draw 25%, Newcastle 25%10' · 1–0 · Coventry 50%, draw 25%, Newcastle 25%11' · 1–0 · Coventry 50%, draw 25%, Newcastle 25%12' · 1–0 · Coventry 50%, draw 25%, Newcastle 25%13' · 1–0 · Coventry 50%, draw 25%, Newcastle 24%14' · 1–0 · Coventry 50%, draw 25%, Newcastle 24%15' · 1–0 · Coventry 51%, draw 25%, Newcastle 24%16' · 1–0 · Coventry 51%, draw 26%, Newcastle 24%17' · 1–0 · Coventry 51%, draw 26%, Newcastle 23%18' · 1–0 · Coventry 51%, draw 26%, Newcastle 23%19' · 1–0 · Coventry 51%, draw 26%, Newcastle 23%20' · 1–0 · Coventry 52%, draw 26%, Newcastle 23%21' · 1–0 · Coventry 52%, draw 26%, Newcastle 22%22' · 1–0 · Coventry 52%, draw 26%, Newcastle 22%23' · 1–0 · Coventry 52%, draw 26%, Newcastle 22%24' · 1–0 · Coventry 52%, draw 26%, Newcastle 22%25' · 1–0 · Coventry 53%, draw 26%, Newcastle 21%26' · 1–0 · Coventry 53%, draw 26%, Newcastle 21%27' · 1–0 · Coventry 53%, draw 26%, Newcastle 21%28' · 1–0 · Coventry 53%, draw 26%, Newcastle 21%29' · 1–0 · Coventry 54%, draw 26%, Newcastle 20%30' · 1–0 · Coventry 54%, draw 26%, Newcastle 20%31' · 1–0 · Coventry 54%, draw 26%, Newcastle 20%32' · 1–0 · Coventry 54%, draw 26%, Newcastle 19%33' · 1–0 · Coventry 55%, draw 26%, Newcastle 19%34' · 1–0 · Coventry 55%, draw 26%, Newcastle 19%35' · 1–0 · Coventry 55%, draw 26%, Newcastle 19%36' · 1–0 · Coventry 55%, draw 26%, Newcastle 18%37' · 1–0 · Coventry 56%, draw 26%, Newcastle 18%38' · 1–0 · Coventry 56%, draw 26%, Newcastle 18%39' · 1–0 · Coventry 56%, draw 26%, Newcastle 17%40' · 1–0 · Coventry 56%, draw 26%, Newcastle 17%41' · 1–0 · Coventry 57%, draw 26%, Newcastle 17%42' · 1–0 · Coventry 57%, draw 26%, Newcastle 16%43' · 1–0 · Coventry 57%, draw 26%, Newcastle 16%44' · 1–0 · Coventry 58%, draw 26%, Newcastle 16%45' · 1–0 · Coventry 58%, draw 26%, Newcastle 16%45+1' · 1–0 · Coventry 58%, draw 26%, Newcastle 15%45+2' · 1–0 · Coventry 59%, draw 26%, Newcastle 15%HT · 1–0 · Coventry 59%, draw 26%, Newcastle 14%46' · 1–0 · Coventry 59%, draw 26%, Newcastle 14%47' · 1–0 · Coventry 59%, draw 26%, Newcastle 14%48' · 1–0 · Coventry 60%, draw 26%, Newcastle 14%49' · 2–0 · Coventry 89%, draw 9%, Newcastle 3%50' · 2–0 · Coventry 89%, draw 9%, Newcastle 3%51' · 2–0 · Coventry 89%, draw 8%, Newcastle 2%52' · 2–0 · Coventry 89%, draw 8%, Newcastle 2%53' · 2–0 · Coventry 90%, draw 8%, Newcastle 2%54' · 2–0 · Coventry 90%, draw 8%, Newcastle 2%55' · 2–0 · Coventry 90%, draw 8%, Newcastle 2%56' · 2–0 · Coventry 91%, draw 7%, Newcastle 2%57' · 2–0 · Coventry 91%, draw 7%, Newcastle 2%58' · 2–0 · Coventry 91%, draw 7%, Newcastle 2%60' · 2–0 · Coventry 92%, draw 6%, Newcastle 1%62' · 2–0 · Coventry 93%, draw 6%, Newcastle 1%63' · 2–0 · Coventry 93%, draw 6%, Newcastle 1%64' · 2–0 · Coventry 93%, draw 6%, Newcastle 1%66' · 2–0 · Coventry 94%, draw 5%, Newcastle 1%67' · 2–0 · Coventry 94%, draw 5%, Newcastle 1%68' · 2–0 · Coventry 94%, draw 5%, Newcastle 1%69' · 2–0 · Coventry 95%, draw 5%, Newcastle 1%70' · 2–0 · Coventry 95%, draw 4%, Newcastle 1%71' · 2–1 · Coventry 72%, draw 23%, Newcastle 6%72' · 2–1 · Coventry 73%, draw 22%, Newcastle 5%73' · 2–1 · Coventry 73%, draw 22%, Newcastle 5%74' · 2–1 · Coventry 74%, draw 21%, Newcastle 5%75' · 2–1 · Coventry 75%, draw 21%, Newcastle 4%76' · 2–1 · Coventry 75%, draw 20%, Newcastle 4%77' · 2–1 · Coventry 76%, draw 20%, Newcastle 4%78' · 2–1 · Coventry 77%, draw 19%, Newcastle 3%79' · 2–1 · Coventry 78%, draw 19%, Newcastle 3%80' · 2–1 · Coventry 79%, draw 18%, Newcastle 3%81' · 2–1 · Coventry 80%, draw 18%, Newcastle 3%82' · 3–1 · Coventry 98%, draw 2%, Newcastle 0%83' · 3–1 · Coventry 98%, draw 2%, Newcastle 0%84' · 3–1 · Coventry 98%, draw 1%, Newcastle 0%85' · 3–1 · Coventry 99%, draw 1%, Newcastle 0%86' · 3–1 · Coventry 99%, draw 1%, Newcastle 0%87' · 4–1 · Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0%88' · 4–1 · Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0%89' · 4–1 · Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0%90' · 4–1 · Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0%90+1' · 4–1 · Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0%90+2' · 4–1 · Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0%90+3' · 4–1 · Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0%90+4' · 4–1 · Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0%90+5' · 4–1 · Coventry 100%, draw 0%, Newcastle 0%

Last reading, 90+5': 100% · 0% · 0%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Newcastle 51% to win: Coventry won.

  1. 6'Coventry:Jack Rudoni 2131 +23* (pen.)
  2. 48'Coventry:Sidiki Cherif 1968 +157*
  3. 59'Newcastle:Amar Dedić 2290 −8* for Lewis Miley 2318 −8*
  4. 59'Newcastle:Bazoumana Touré 2089 −8* for Jacob Murphy 2271 −11*
  5. 59'Newcastle:Joelinton 2333 −10* for Joe Willock 2358 −8*
  6. 61'Coventry:Tatsuhiro Sakamoto 2097 +1* for Ephron Mason-Clark 2152 +12*
  7. 66'Coventry:Milan van Ewijk 2150 +23*
  8. 70'Newcastle:Sven Botman 2403 −21* assist Nico González 2535 −78*
  9. 78'Coventry:Frank Onyeka 2153 −5* for Caleb Yirenkyi 2023 +34*
  10. 78'Coventry:Ellis Simms 2072 +6* for Sidiki Cherif 1968 +157*
  11. 78'Newcastle:William Osula 1906 −8* for Yoane Wissa 2297 −9*
  12. 81'Coventry:Ellis Simms 2072 +6* assist Brandon Thomas-Asante 2176 +84*
  13. 81'Newcastle:Joelinton 2333 −10*
  14. 83'Coventry:Victor Torp 2103 −6* for Jack Rudoni 2131 +23*
  15. 83'Coventry:Stephen Mfuni 1560 +16* for Matt Grimes 2136 +19*
  16. 86'Coventry:Stephen Mfuni 1560 +16* assist Jay Dasilva 2245 +62
  17. 90'Newcastle:Dan Burn 2224 −13* for Bazoumana Touré 2089 −8*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GL. Horníček22590
DL. Miley2318−8*
DM. Thiaw2433−7
DS. Botman2403−21*
DL. Hall2479−13
MNico González2535−78*
MJ. Willock2358−8*
MJ. Murphy2271−11*
MY. Wissa2297−9*
MH. Barnes2361−9*
FM. Fernandez-Pardo2145−8*
CMatthias Jaissle2375−8*
Before kick-off: 23% · 26% · 51%(Coventry · draw · Newcastle)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 4–1 had 1%.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Coventry €9.3M, Newcastle €29.6M.
  • Coventry were without 2 expected starters: A. Amenda (1992) and T. Awoniyi (2046).
  • Newcastle were without 1 expected starter: A. Elanga (2376).

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Coventry

19th in Premier League · 3 pts from 5

  • 19 SepWNottingham Forest 2026
  • 16 SepLAston Villa 1973
  • 13 SepLBrighton 2101
  • 5 SepLManchester City 2113
  • 29 AugLHull City 2104

Newcastle

11th in Premier League · 8 pts from 5

  • 19 SepWHull City 2288
  • 14 SepLLeeds 2350
  • 8 SepWMillwall 2349
  • 5 SepDBournemouth 2377
  • 29 AugWTottenham 2327

Season outlook

From the Premier League simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Coventry3 /533.10%0%75%20th
Newcastle8 /555.2<1%18%1%6th
Coventry
Newcastle

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Premier League

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

M. Grimes
M. Grimes

Coventry · +2.2 (Good) · Elo 2117

S. Botman
S. Botman

Newcastle · +4.0 (Elite) · Elo 2423

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Frank James Lampard

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Matthias Jaissle

Coach DNA: shot-heavy · creative

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Coventry: creative (how Frank James Lampard plays) · Newcastle: balanced profile (how Matthias Jaissle plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.