Serie A · Regular Season - 35
Coritiba vs Santos
Wed 18 Nov 2026 · 22:30 UTC
Coritiba host Santos on Wed 18 Nov 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Coritiba 35%, draw 29%, Santos 36%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Coritiba €974K, Santos €2.6M.
- Santos' expected eleven is in form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.0 over 180 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Coritiba goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 0–19%
- 1–08%
- 1–28%
- 2–18%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Coritiba 1785 · Santos 1950
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Coritiba · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.5 (Good) · Elo 1741
Santos · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.3 (Good) · Elo 1998
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Coritiba
11th in Série A · 42 pts from 33
- 31 OctWVitoria Brazil Serie A1782
- 26 OctLGremio Brazil Serie A1781
- 17 OctLAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1771
- 12 OctDBotafogo Brazil Serie A1777
- 9 OctLFluminense Brazil Serie A1827
Santos
9th in Série A · 47 pts from 34
- 2 NovLRB Bragantino Brazil Serie A1944
- 28 OctDPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1946
- 25 OctDBahia Brazil Serie A1940
- 18 OctWFluminense Brazil Serie A1946
- 11 OctLAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1975
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 42 /33 | 46.0 | 0% | 0% | 1% | 12th |
| Santos | 47 /34 | 53.2 | 0% | <1% | 0% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Coritiba: balanced profile (how Seabra Fernando plays) · Santos: balanced profile (how Alexi Stival plays)