Serie A · Regular Season - 32
Coritiba vs Gremio
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba
Coritiba host Gremio on Mon 26 Oct 2026 (Serie A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Coritiba 37%, draw 29%, Gremio 34%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Coritiba €988K, Gremio €1.9M.
- Home advantage makes Coritiba the favourite here: it adds 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Coritiba goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 2–18%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Coritiba 1756 · Gremio 1885
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Coritiba · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.9 (Good) · Elo 1720
Gremio · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +6.7 (Elite) · Elo 1914
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Coritiba
12th in Série A · 39 pts from 31
- 17 OctLAtletico-MG Brazil Serie A1770
- 12 OctDBotafogo Brazil Serie A1777
- 9 OctLFluminense Brazil Serie A1827
- 19 SepLVasco Da Gama Brazil Serie A1742
- 12 SepDAtletico Paranaense Brazil Serie A1816
Gremio
18th in Série A · 31 pts from 31
- 18 OctLCruzeiro Brazil Serie A1903
- 11 OctDInternacional Brazil Serie A1892
- 7 OctDRemo Brazil Serie A1884
- 20 SepDPalmeiras Brazil Serie A1907
- 16 SepLBotafogo Brazil Serie A1897
Season outlook
From the Serie A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Coritiba | 39 /31 | 45.6 | 0% | 0% | 3% | 14th |
| Gremio | 31 /31 | 39.9 | 0% | 0% | 45% | 18th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: dribble-heavy
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Coritiba: balanced profile (how Fernando Seabra plays) · Gremio: dribble-heavy (how Renato Portaluppi plays)