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Serie A · Regular Season - 30

Coritiba 1–1 Botafogo

Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UTC · Estádio Couto Pereira, Curitiba

Coritiba crestCoritibaTeam 1742
1–1
Full time
HT 1–1
Botafogo crestBotafogoTeam 1888

Match story

Coritiba · draw · Botafogo

Before kick-off: 36% · 29% · 35%

Live chances: Coritiba 1%, draw 99%, Botafogo 1% at 90+6'2' · 0–0 · Coritiba 36%, draw 29%, Botafogo 35%3' · 0–0 · Coritiba 36%, draw 29%, Botafogo 35%4' · 0–0 · Coritiba 36%, draw 30%, Botafogo 35%5' · 0–0 · Coritiba 36%, draw 30%, Botafogo 35%6' · 0–0 · Coritiba 36%, draw 30%, Botafogo 35%7' · 0–0 · Coritiba 36%, draw 30%, Botafogo 34%8' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 30%, Botafogo 34%9' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 30%, Botafogo 34%10' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 30%, Botafogo 34%11' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 31%, Botafogo 34%12' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 31%, Botafogo 34%13' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 31%, Botafogo 34%14' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 31%, Botafogo 34%15' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 31%, Botafogo 34%16' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 32%, Botafogo 34%17' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 32%, Botafogo 34%18' · 0–0 · Coritiba 35%, draw 32%, Botafogo 34%19' · 0–0 · Coritiba 34%, draw 32%, Botafogo 33%20' · 0–0 · Coritiba 34%, draw 32%, Botafogo 33%21' · 0–0 · Coritiba 34%, draw 32%, Botafogo 33%23' · 1–0 · Coritiba 66%, draw 22%, Botafogo 12%24' · 1–0 · Coritiba 66%, draw 22%, Botafogo 12%25' · 1–0 · Coritiba 66%, draw 22%, Botafogo 12%27' · 1–1 · Coritiba 34%, draw 34%, Botafogo 33%28' · 1–1 · Coritiba 33%, draw 34%, Botafogo 33%29' · 1–1 · Coritiba 33%, draw 34%, Botafogo 32%30' · 1–1 · Coritiba 33%, draw 34%, Botafogo 32%31' · 1–0 · Coritiba 67%, draw 22%, Botafogo 11%32' · 1–0 · Coritiba 67%, draw 22%, Botafogo 11%33' · 1–0 · Coritiba 67%, draw 22%, Botafogo 11%34' · 1–0 · Coritiba 67%, draw 22%, Botafogo 11%35' · 1–1 · Coritiba 33%, draw 36%, Botafogo 32%36' · 1–1 · Coritiba 32%, draw 36%, Botafogo 32%37' · 1–1 · Coritiba 32%, draw 36%, Botafogo 31%38' · 1–1 · Coritiba 32%, draw 37%, Botafogo 31%39' · 1–1 · Coritiba 32%, draw 37%, Botafogo 31%40' · 1–1 · Coritiba 32%, draw 37%, Botafogo 31%41' · 1–1 · Coritiba 32%, draw 38%, Botafogo 31%42' · 1–1 · Coritiba 31%, draw 38%, Botafogo 31%43' · 1–1 · Coritiba 31%, draw 38%, Botafogo 30%44' · 1–1 · Coritiba 31%, draw 39%, Botafogo 30%45' · 1–1 · Coritiba 31%, draw 39%, Botafogo 30%45+1' · 1–1 · Coritiba 31%, draw 39%, Botafogo 30%45+2' · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 40%, Botafogo 30%45+3' · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 40%, Botafogo 30%45+4' · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 40%, Botafogo 29%45+5' · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 40%, Botafogo 29%45+6' · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 40%, Botafogo 29%45+7' · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 40%, Botafogo 29%HT · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 40%, Botafogo 29%46' · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 40%, Botafogo 29%47' · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 41%, Botafogo 29%48' · 1–1 · Coritiba 30%, draw 41%, Botafogo 29%50' · 1–1 · Coritiba 29%, draw 42%, Botafogo 29%52' · 1–1 · Coritiba 29%, draw 43%, Botafogo 28%53' · 1–1 · Coritiba 28%, draw 44%, Botafogo 28%54' · 1–1 · Coritiba 28%, draw 45%, Botafogo 27%56' · 1–1 · Coritiba 27%, draw 46%, Botafogo 27%57' · 1–1 · Coritiba 27%, draw 47%, Botafogo 26%58' · 1–1 · Coritiba 27%, draw 47%, Botafogo 26%59' · 1–1 · Coritiba 26%, draw 48%, Botafogo 26%60' · 1–1 · Coritiba 26%, draw 49%, Botafogo 25%61' · 1–1 · Coritiba 26%, draw 49%, Botafogo 25%62' · 1–1 · Coritiba 25%, draw 50%, Botafogo 25%63' · 1–1 · Coritiba 25%, draw 51%, Botafogo 24%64' · 1–1 · Coritiba 25%, draw 51%, Botafogo 24%65' · 1–1 · Coritiba 24%, draw 52%, Botafogo 24%66' · 1–1 · Coritiba 24%, draw 53%, Botafogo 23%67' · 1–1 · Coritiba 23%, draw 54%, Botafogo 23%68' · 1–1 · Coritiba 23%, draw 55%, Botafogo 22%69' · 1–1 · Coritiba 22%, draw 56%, Botafogo 22%70' · 1–1 · Coritiba 22%, draw 56%, Botafogo 22%71' · 1–1 · Coritiba 21%, draw 57%, Botafogo 21%72' · 1–1 · Coritiba 21%, draw 58%, Botafogo 21%73' · 1–1 · Coritiba 21%, draw 59%, Botafogo 20%74' · 1–1 · Coritiba 20%, draw 60%, Botafogo 20%75' · 1–1 · Coritiba 19%, draw 61%, Botafogo 19%76' · 1–1 · Coritiba 19%, draw 63%, Botafogo 19%77' · 1–1 · Coritiba 18%, draw 64%, Botafogo 18%78' · 1–1 · Coritiba 18%, draw 65%, Botafogo 17%79' · 1–1 · Coritiba 17%, draw 66%, Botafogo 17%80' · 1–1 · Coritiba 16%, draw 68%, Botafogo 16%81' · 1–1 · Coritiba 16%, draw 69%, Botafogo 15%82' · 1–1 · Coritiba 15%, draw 70%, Botafogo 15%83' · 1–1 · Coritiba 14%, draw 72%, Botafogo 14%84' · 1–1 · Coritiba 14%, draw 73%, Botafogo 13%85' · 1–1 · Coritiba 13%, draw 75%, Botafogo 13%86' · 1–1 · Coritiba 12%, draw 76%, Botafogo 12%87' · 1–1 · Coritiba 11%, draw 78%, Botafogo 11%88' · 1–1 · Coritiba 10%, draw 80%, Botafogo 10%89' · 1–1 · Coritiba 9%, draw 82%, Botafogo 9%90' · 1–1 · Coritiba 8%, draw 84%, Botafogo 8%90+1' · 1–1 · Coritiba 7%, draw 86%, Botafogo 7%90+2' · 1–1 · Coritiba 6%, draw 88%, Botafogo 6%90+3' · 1–1 · Coritiba 5%, draw 91%, Botafogo 5%90+4' · 1–1 · Coritiba 3%, draw 93%, Botafogo 3%90+5' · 1–1 · Coritiba 2%, draw 96%, Botafogo 2%90+6' · 1–1 · Coritiba 1%, draw 99%, Botafogo 1%

Last reading, 90+6': 1% · 99% · 1%

Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.

We gave Coritiba 36% to win: it ended in a draw.

  1. 22'Coritiba:Marçal 1654 −16* (own goal)
  2. 34'Botafogo:Danilo dos Santos de Oliveira 1987 +2 assist Cristian Medina 1972 +2
  3. 45'Botafogo:Allan 1625 −14*
  4. 45+3'Coritiba:Fabricio Bustos 1934 −3
  5. 45+4'Coritiba:Sebastián Gómez 1852 −3
  6. 52'Coritiba:Thiago Santos 1545 −10
  7. 56'Coritiba:Tinga 1743 −5 for Fabricio Bustos 1934 −3
  8. 56'Coritiba:Nicolas Fonseca 1859 −1 for Thiago Santos 1545 −10
  9. 64'Coritiba:Breno Lopes 1868 −2 for Joaquin Lavega 1715 −8*
  10. 64'Coritiba:Rodrigo Silva Nascimento 1685 −8* for Felipe Jonatan 1841 −1
  11. 66'Botafogo:Marçal 1654 −16*
  12. 66'Coritiba:Tiago Coser 1824 −8*
  13. 73'Botafogo:domingos andrade 1650 −7* for Hakim Ziyech 1814 −5
  14. 74'Botafogo:Júnior Santos 1883 −3 for Allan 1625 −14*
  15. 77'Botafogo:Tiquinho Soares 1591 −7 for Arthur Cabral 2000 0
  16. 77'Botafogo:Álvaro Montoro 2012 −7* for Cristian Medina 1972 +2
  17. 84'Coritiba:Renato Marques 1623 −8* for Josué 1729 −9
  18. 86'Botafogo:Paulinho 1714 −11* for Matheus Martins 1955 +1
  19. 88'Coritiba:Rodrigo Silva Nascimento 1685 −8*

Line-ups

Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.

4-2-3-1Formations4-2-3-1
GPedro Luccas1829−8*
DF. Bustos1934−3
DJacy1836−2
DTiago Cóser1824−8*
DFelipe Jonatan1841−1
MThiago Santos1545−10
MS. Gómez1852−3
MPaulo Roberto15950
MJosué1729−9
MJ. Lavega1715−8*
FPedro Rocha1818−4
CFernando Seabra1855−1
GGabriel Batista1760+2
DVitinho20470
DN. Ferraresi1968+1
DMarçal1654−16*
DAlex Telles1914−3
MDanilo Santos1987+2
MAllan1625−14*
MC. Medina1972+2
MH. Ziyech1814−5
MMatheus Martins1955+1
FArthur Cabral20000
CTite1979+1
Before kick-off: 36% · 29% · 35%(Coritiba · draw · Botafogo)
HomeDrawAway

Our most likely score was 1–1 (14%), and that was the result.

  • Average value of the starting XI: Coritiba €1.0M, Botafogo €4.5M.
  • Coritiba were without 3 expected starters: Pedro Luccas (1837), Bruno Melo (1813) and Tiago Cóser (1832).
  • Home advantage made Coritiba the favourite: it added 12 points to their win chance; Série A has one of the three largest home advantages of our 20 competitions.

Form

Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.

Coritiba

10th in Série A · 38 pts from 29

  • 9 OctLFluminense 1827
  • 19 SepLVasco Da Gama 1742
  • 12 SepDAtletico Paranaense 1816
  • 6 SepLMirassol 1806
  • 31 AugWRemo 1799

Botafogo

13th in Série A · 35 pts from 29

  • 7 OctLVasco Da Gama 1943
  • 19 SepLMirassol 1938
  • 16 SepWGremio 1879
  • 12 SepDRB Bragantino 1889
  • 6 SepDPalmeiras 1883

Season outlook

From the Serie A simulation, before this match.

ClubPts nowPred. ptsTitleTop 4Bottom 3Most likely
Coritiba38 /2946.80%0%2%13th
Botafogo35 /2947.90%0%1%11th
Coritiba
Botafogo

Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.

Full table and finishing odds: Serie A

Players to watch

Highest (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Josué
Josué

Coritiba · +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1738

N. Ferraresi
N. Ferraresi

Botafogo · +5.4 (Good) · Elo 1967

Team Elo history

Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.

Coach Elo history

Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).

Fernando Seabra

Coach DNA: balanced profile

Adenor Leonardo Bacchi

Coach DNA: possession-based

Playing style

How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).

Coritiba: balanced profile (how Fernando Seabra plays) · Botafogo: balanced profile (how Adenor Leonardo Bacchi plays)

* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.