Primera Nacional · Regular Season - 35
Colegiales vs Atletico DE Rafaela
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio de Colegiales, Buenos Aires
Colegiales host Atletico DE Rafaela on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (Primera Nacional); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Colegiales 41%, draw 29%, Atletico DE Rafaela 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Colegiales €98K, Atletico DE Rafaela €100K.
- Home advantage makes Colegiales the favourite here: it adds 7 points to their win chance.
- E. Ocampo, L. Castillo and N. Toloza (Colegiales) have not played for over 90 days.
- G. Fernández (Atletico DE Rafaela) has not played for over 90 days.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Colegiales goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–08%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Colegiales 1397 · Atletico DE Rafaela 1415
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Atletico DE Rafaela · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -0.1 (Average) · Elo 1340
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Colegiales
7th in Primera Nacional · 50 pts from 34
- 26 SepWChacarita Juniors Argentine Primera Nacional1354
- 29 AugWDeportivo Maipu Argentine Primera Nacional1353
- 14 JulLAtlanta Argentine Primera Nacional1394
- 4 JulLGimnasia Y Tiro Argentine Primera Nacional1432
- 6 JunLAtletico DE Rafaela Argentine Primera Nacional1460
Atletico DE Rafaela
11th in Primera Nacional · 45 pts from 34
- 29 AugWTristan Suarez Argentine Primera Nacional1398
- 11 JulLDeportivo Maipu Argentine Primera Nacional1401
- 4 JulLAlmagro Argentine Primera Nacional1433
- 6 JunWColegiales Argentine Primera Nacional1446
- 31 MayLQuilmes Argentine Primera Nacional1456
Season outlook
From the Primera Nacional simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colegiales | 50 /34 | 52.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 12th |
| Atletico DE Rafaela | 45 /34 | 47.7 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 19th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 36th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: –
Coach DNA: –