League Two · Regular Season - 15
Colchester vs Gillingham
Sat 14 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC
Colchester host Gillingham on Sat 14 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Colchester 36%, draw 29%, Gillingham 35%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Colchester €241K, Gillingham €201K.
- Home advantage makes Colchester the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Colchester goals first.
- 1–114%
- 0–09%
- 1–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Colchester 1635 · Gillingham 1694
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Colchester · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1710
Gillingham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1815
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Colchester
21st in League Two · 12 pts from 12
- 24 OctLNorthampton England League Two1642
- 20 OctDChesterfield England League Two1605
- 17 OctDExeter City England League Two1636
- 10 OctLNewport County England League Two1653
- 3 OctDLuton England EFL Trophy1613
Gillingham
12th in League Two · 17 pts from 13
- 24 OctLGrimsby England League Two1692
- 20 OctDPort Vale England League Two1718
- 17 OctLAccrington ST England League Two1697
- 13 OctWBrighton U21 England EFL Trophy1577
- 10 OctWRotherham England League Two1630
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Colchester | 12 /12 | 57.1 | 0% | 3% | 16% | 19th |
| Gillingham | 17 /13 | 65.6 | 1% | 19% | 2% | 5th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Colchester: balanced profile (how Danny Cowley plays) · Gillingham: balanced profile (how Gareth Ainsworth plays)