Primera División · Clausura - 12
Club Nacional vs Liverpool Montevideo
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 22:30 UTC · Gran Parque Central, Montevideo
Club Nacional host Liverpool Montevideo on Sun 25 Oct 2026 (Primera División); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Club Nacional 52%, draw 26%, Liverpool Montevideo 22%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Club Nacional €806K, Liverpool Montevideo €425K.
- Primera División - Apertura: L. Mejía is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1805).
- Club Nacional are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
- Liverpool Montevideo are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Club Nacional goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–110%
- 2–09%
- 0–08%
- 1–26%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Club Nacional 1745 · Liverpool Montevideo 1617
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Club Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Elite) · Elo 1805
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Club Nacional
5th in Primera División - Apertura · 55 pts from 32
- 11 OctWCentral Espanol Uruguay Primera Division1735
- 5 OctWAtletico Torque Uruguay Primera Division1710
- 26 SepWCerro Largo Uruguay Primera Division1704
- 20 SepWDefensor Sporting Uruguay Primera Division1706
- 12 SepDWanderers Uruguay Primera Division1745
Liverpool Montevideo
6th in Primera División - Apertura · 53 pts from 33
- 18 OctWPenarol Uruguay Primera Division1593
- 9 OctDDeportivo Maldonado Uruguay Primera Division1585
- 3 OctWProgreso Uruguay Primera Division1519
- 6 SepWBoston River Uruguay Primera Division1584
- 30 AugDCerro Largo Uruguay Primera Division1574
Season outlook
From the Primera División simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Club Nacional | 134 /69 | 137.8 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 2nd |
| Liverpool Montevideo | 118 /70 | 118.9 | 0% | 100% | 0% | 3rd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: creative · shot-heavy