Thai League 1 · Regular Season - 7
Chonburi FC vs BG Pathum United
Mon 2 Nov 2026 · 12:00 UTC · IPE Chonburi Campus Stadium, Chonburi
Chonburi FC host BG Pathum United on Mon 2 Nov 2026 (Thai League 1); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chonburi FC 41%, draw 29%, BG Pathum United 30%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chonburi FC €160K, BG Pathum United €221K.
- Home advantage makes Chonburi FC the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chonburi FC goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 2–07%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Chonburi FC 1406 · BG Pathum United 1411
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 3 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
BG Pathum United · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.4 (Poor) · Elo 1431
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chonburi FC
16th in Thai League 1 · 0 pts from 5
- 17 OctLPrachuap Thailand Thai League 11370
- 11 OctLSisaket United Thailand Thai League 11440
- 2 MayDKanchanaburi Thailand Thai League 11422
- 5 AprWRayong FC Thailand Thai League 11429
- 14 MarLBuriram United Thailand Thai League 11433
BG Pathum United
10th in Thai League 1 · 6 pts from 5
- 18 OctDSisaket United Thailand Thai League 11346
- 15 OctLAdelaide United AFC Cup1468
- 10 OctDAyutthaya FC Thailand Thai League 11365
- 4 SepDPattani Thailand Thai League 11464
- 14 MarDRayong FC Thailand Thai League 11368
Season outlook
From the Thai League 1 simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chonburi FC | 0 /5 | 35.5 | 0% | 2% | 20% | 11th |
| BG Pathum United | 6 /5 | 41.1 | <1% | 9% | 5% | 7th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 16th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: creative · possession-based
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chonburi FC: direct (how Rangsan Vivatchaichok plays) · BG Pathum United: possession-based · creative (how Vladimir Vujovic plays)