Primera A · Clausura - 16
Chico vs Bucaramanga
Fri 23 Oct 2026 · 23:00 UTC · Estadio La Independencia, Tunja
Chico host Bucaramanga on Fri 23 Oct 2026 (Primera A); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chico 28%, draw 28%, Bucaramanga 44%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chico €226K, Bucaramanga €466K.
- Largest team-Elo gap of the Primera A Clausura - 16: 255 points.
- Primera A: C. Fiermarín is the highest-rated goalkeeper (1859).
- Chico's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.9 over 180 days.
- Bucaramanga are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chico goals first.
- 1–113%
- 0–110%
- 1–29%
- 0–08%
- 0–28%
- 1–07%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Chico 1500 · Bucaramanga 1755
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chico · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.9 (Average) · Elo 1555
Bucaramanga · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1842
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chico
18th in Primera A · 17 pts from 19
- 17 OctLAtletico Nacional Colombia Primera A1515
- 11 OctLCucuta Colombia Primera A1526
- 3 OctDDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1522
- 25 SepWDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1465
- 19 SepLMillonarios Colombia Primera A1448
Bucaramanga
13th in Primera A · 23 pts from 19
- 18 OctDAmerica de Cali Colombia Primera A1753
- 13 OctDÁguilas Doradas Colombia Primera A1764
- 4 OctWJunior Colombia Primera A1745
- 26 SepWOnce Caldas Colombia Primera A1710
- 20 SepWInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1696
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chico | 17 /19 | 23.5 | 0% | 0% | 49% | 18th |
| Bucaramanga | 23 /19 | 33.3 | 0% | 1% | 0% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: direct
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chico: balanced profile (how Jhon Jaime Gómez plays) · Bucaramanga: balanced profile (how Pablo Peirano Pardeiro plays)