Primera A · Clausura - 1
Chico 1–4 Atletico Nacional
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 20:00 UTC · Estadio La Independencia, Tunja
ChicoTeam 1501Atletico NacionalTeam 1794- Juan Diaz 83' (pen)
- Emmanuel Benítez 16'
- Edwin Cardona 50'
- Andrés Sarmiento 85', 90+1'
We gave Atletico Nacional 47% to win: they did.
- 16'Emmanuel Benítez assist Edwin Cardona –Atletico Nacional:Emmanuel Benítez assist Edwin Cardona –
- Juan Diaz –19'Chico:Juan Diaz –
- 38'Juan Rengifo –Atletico Nacional:Juan Rengifo –
- 45'Xavi Rios –Atletico Nacional:Xavi Rios –
- I. Camargo – for Alejandro Maya45'Chico:I. Camargo – for Alejandro Maya
- 45'Felipe Marín – for Elkin RiveroAtletico Nacional:Felipe Marín – for Elkin Rivero
- Yesus Cabrera – for Jacobo Pimentel –45'Chico:Yesus Cabrera – for Jacobo Pimentel –
- 45'Nicolás Rodríguez – for Emmanuel BenítezAtletico Nacional:Nicolás Rodríguez – for Emmanuel Benítez
- 50'Edwin Cardona – assist Nicolás Rodríguez –Atletico Nacional:Edwin Cardona – assist Nicolás Rodríguez –
- 56'Edwin Cardona –Atletico Nacional:Edwin Cardona –
- I. Camargo –62'Chico:I. Camargo –
- sebastian viveros for Sebastian Salazar –65'Chico:sebastian viveros for Sebastian Salazar –
- 65'Andrés Sarmiento – for Elías Lautaro Cabrera –Atletico Nacional:Andrés Sarmiento – for Elías Lautaro Cabrera –
- 66'Kevin Parra – for Edwin Cardona –Atletico Nacional:Kevin Parra – for Edwin Cardona –
- Sander Navarro – for Estiven Sarria –74'Chico:Sander Navarro – for Estiven Sarria –
- Delio Ramírez – for S. Mera –74'Chico:Delio Ramírez – for S. Mera –
- 76'Jose Escorcia for Juan Rengifo –Atletico Nacional:Jose Escorcia for Juan Rengifo –
- Juan Diaz – (pen.)83'Chico:Juan Diaz – (pen.)
- 85'Andrés Sarmiento – assist Jose EscorciaAtletico Nacional:Andrés Sarmiento – assist Jose Escorcia
- 90+1'Andrés Sarmiento – assist Kevin Parra –Atletico Nacional:Andrés Sarmiento – assist Kevin Parra –
Before kick-off (provisional): 25% · 27% · 47%(Chico · draw · Atletico Nacional)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (13%); the result 1–4 had 2%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chico €185K, Atletico Nacional €562K.
- Style contrast in attacking (Primera A): Chico ranked #20 of 22, Atletico Nacional #1.
- Chico's expected eleven was out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -2.1 over 180 days.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chico
18th in Primera A · 17 pts from 19
- 11 OctLCucuta Colombia Primera A1526
- 3 OctDDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1522
- 25 SepWDeportivo Pasto Colombia Primera A1465
- 19 SepLMillonarios Colombia Primera A1448
- 16 SepLAlianza Valledupar Colombia Primera A1442
Atletico Nacional
1st in Primera A · 40 pts from 19
- 8 OctDDeportes Tolima Colombia Primera A1781
- 1 OctWJunior Colombia Primera A1757
- 25 SepDMillonarios Colombia Primera A1795
- 21 SepLLlaneros Colombia Primera A1788
- 17 SepWInternacional de Bogota Colombia Primera A1763
Season outlook
From the Primera A simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chico | 17 /19 | 24.6 | 0% | 0% | 40% | 17th |
| Atletico Nacional | 40 /19 | 54.7 | 99% | 100% | 0% | 1st |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 20th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chico · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1555
Atletico Nacional · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.6 (Good) · Elo 1865
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: possession-based
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chico: balanced profile (how Jhon Jaime Gómez plays) · Atletico Nacional: creative · shot-heavy (how Lucas Fidolo González Vélez plays)