Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 29
Chicago Fire 1–3 Philadelphia Union
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Soldier Field, Chicago
Chicago FireTeam 1977
Philadelphia UnionTeam 2039Match story
Chicago Fire · draw · Philadelphia UnionBefore kick-off: 41% · 26% · 33%
Last reading, 90+6': 0% · 0% · 100%
Live chances from PlayerElo's pre-match model and the current score.
- Milan Iloski 49'
- Bruno Damiani 55', 67'
We gave Chicago Fire 41% to win: Philadelphia Union won.
- Mbekezeli Mbokazi 2034 −1034'
Chicago Fire:Mbekezeli Mbokazi 2034 −10 - Jack Elliott 2073 −941'
Chicago Fire:Jack Elliott 2073 −9 - Maren Haile-Selassie 2033 −32 assist Noah Allen 2118 −1944'
Chicago Fire:Maren Haile-Selassie 2033 −32 assist Noah Allen 2118 −19 - Andreas Hanche-Olsen 1956 −2 for Jonathan Bamba 2009 −645'
Chicago Fire:Andreas Hanche-Olsen 1956 −2 for Jonathan Bamba 2009 −6 - Jack Elliott 2073 −945+1'
Chicago Fire:Jack Elliott 2073 −9 - 49'Milan Iloski 2169 +49 assist Bruno Damiani 2200 +38
Philadelphia Union:Milan Iloski 2169 +49 assist Bruno Damiani 2200 +38 - 55'Bruno Damiani 2200 +38 assist Cavan Sullivan 2110 +56
Philadelphia Union:Bruno Damiani 2200 +38 assist Cavan Sullivan 2110 +56 - 57'Indiana Vassilev 2110 +7 for Jesus Bueno 1950 +20
Philadelphia Union:Indiana Vassilev 2110 +7 for Jesus Bueno 1950 +20 - 67'Bruno Damiani 2200 +38 assist Jovan Lukic 2146 +56
Philadelphia Union:Bruno Damiani 2200 +38 assist Jovan Lukic 2146 +56 - Philip Zinckernagel 2028 −5 for Robert Lewandowski 2036 −1968'
Chicago Fire:Philip Zinckernagel 2028 −5 for Robert Lewandowski 2036 −19 - Puso Dithejane 1697 0 for Johan Arath Gomez 1755 068'
Chicago Fire:Puso Dithejane 1697 0 for Johan Arath Gomez 1755 0 - Leonardo Barroso 1931 0 for Jonathan Dean 2002 −668'
Chicago Fire:Leonardo Barroso 1931 0 for Jonathan Dean 2002 −6 - Sergio Oregel 1877 −8* for Anton Saletros 1997 −772'
Chicago Fire:Sergio Oregel 1877 −8* for Anton Saletros 1997 −7 - 80'Ezekiel Kwame Alladoh 1640 −1* for Bruno Damiani 2200 +38
Philadelphia Union:Ezekiel Kwame Alladoh 1640 −1* for Bruno Damiani 2200 +38 - 80'Benjamin Bender 1760 +5 for Cavan Sullivan 2110 +56
Philadelphia Union:Benjamin Bender 1760 +5 for Cavan Sullivan 2110 +56 - 85'Indiana Vassilev 2110 +7
Philadelphia Union:Indiana Vassilev 2110 +7 - Philip Zinckernagel 2028 −588'
Chicago Fire:Philip Zinckernagel 2028 −5 - 90+2'Japhet Sery Larsen 1883 −7* for Quinn Sullivan 2126 +20
Philadelphia Union:Japhet Sery Larsen 1883 −7* for Quinn Sullivan 2126 +20 - 90+2'Malik Jakupovic 1538 +1 for Milan Iloski 2169 +49
Philadelphia Union:Malik Jakupovic 1538 +1 for Milan Iloski 2169 +49 - 90+3'Neil Pierre 2069 +25
Philadelphia Union:Neil Pierre 2069 +25
Line-ups
Elo change from this match, next to the Elo after it.
Before kick-off: 41% · 26% · 33%(Chicago Fire · draw · Philadelphia Union)
Our most likely score was 1–1 (12%); the result 1–3 had 4%.
- Average value of the starting XI: Chicago Fire €2.8M, Philadelphia Union €3.5M.
- Chicago Fire were without 1 expected starter: T. D'Avilla (2066).
- Home advantage made Chicago Fire the favourite: it added 9 points to their win chance.
- Philadelphia Union had won their last 5 matches.
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chicago Fire
3rd in MLS · 48 pts from 28
- 10 OctWNew York City FC MLS2013
- 7 OctWVancouver Whitecaps MLS1950
- 26 SepWCharlotte MLS1917
- 20 SepLNashville SC MLS2001
- 13 SepLNew England Revolution MLS1947
Philadelphia Union
6th in MLS · 42 pts from 28
- 10 OctWReal Salt Lake MLS2112
- 26 SepWOrlando City SC MLS2017
- 20 SepWSporting Kansas City MLS2075
- 14 SepWSan Diego MLS2040
- 9 SepWFC Cincinnati MLS1975
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation, before this match.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 48 /28 | 56.7 | 0% | 29% | 0% | 5th |
| Philadelphia Union | 42 /28 | 51.4 | 0% | 2% | 0% | 11th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each starting eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.

Chicago Fire · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.7 (Good) · Elo 2004

Philadelphia Union · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.5 (Good) · Elo 2154
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chicago Fire: balanced profile (how Gregg Matthew Berhalter plays) · Philadelphia Union: direct · high-pressing (how Ryan Richter plays)
* Includes our monthly adjustment: every month we take a little off each player's Elo to keep ratings from inflating.