Major League Soccer · Regular Season - 32
Chicago Fire vs Orlando City SC
Thu 29 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UTC · Soldier Field, Chicago
Chicago Fire host Orlando City SC on Thu 29 Oct 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chicago Fire 45%, draw 28%, Orlando City SC 27%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chicago Fire €3.0M, Orlando City SC €2.2M.
- Home advantage makes Chicago Fire the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chicago Fire goals first.
- 1–113%
- 1–010%
- 2–19%
- 0–08%
- 2–08%
- 0–17%
- Other scores45%
Team Elo: Chicago Fire 1968 · Orlando City SC 1969
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chicago Fire · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1985
Orlando City SC · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +5.8 (Good) · Elo 2143
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chicago Fire
4th in MLS · 48 pts from 30
- 17 OctLNew England Revolution MLS2013
- 15 OctLPhiladelphia Union MLS2007
- 10 OctWNew York City FC MLS2013
- 7 OctWVancouver Whitecaps MLS1950
- 26 SepWCharlotte MLS1917
Orlando City SC
7th in MLS · 41 pts from 30
- 17 OctWDC United MLS1940
- 14 OctDToronto FC MLS1925
- 10 OctWColumbus Crew MLS1943
- 26 SepLPhiladelphia Union MLS1927
- 19 SepLNew England Revolution MLS1964
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 48 /30 | 53.6 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 8th |
| Orlando City SC | 41 /30 | 46.5 | 0% | 0% | 0% | 14th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: –
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chicago Fire: balanced profile (how Gregg Matthew Berhalter plays) · Orlando City SC: balanced profile (how Martín Perelman plays)