Major League Soccer · Round of 16
Chicago Fire vs Charlotte
Sun 22 Nov 2026 · 23:30 UTC · Soldier Field
Chicago Fire host Charlotte on Sun 22 Nov 2026 (Major League Soccer); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chicago Fire 44%, draw 28%, Charlotte 28%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chicago Fire €3.3M, Charlotte €2.6M.
- Home advantage makes Chicago Fire the favourite here: it adds 9 points to their win chance.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chicago Fire goals first.
- 1–112%
- 2–19%
- 2–28%
- 1–27%
- 1–06%
- 2–06%
- Other scores52%
Team Elo: Chicago Fire 1991 · Charlotte 2004
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chicago Fire · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +3.1 (Good) · Elo 2031
Charlotte · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +4.0 (Good) · Elo 1963
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chicago Fire
4th in MLS · 55 pts from 34
- 7 NovLColumbus Crew MLS2038
- 1 NovWColorado Rapids MLS2013
- 29 OctDOrlando City SC MLS1989
- 24 OctWAtlanta United FC MLS2009
- 17 OctLNew England Revolution MLS2003
Charlotte
5th in MLS · 54 pts from 34
- 7 NovDInter Miami MLS2015
- 31 OctWOrlando City SC MLS2004
- 28 OctWCF Montreal MLS1940
- 25 OctLPortland Timbers MLS1942
- 17 OctDPhiladelphia Union MLS1944
Season outlook
From the Major League Soccer simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chicago Fire | 55 /34 | 57.6 | 0% | 8% | 0% | 6th |
| Charlotte | 54 /34 | 56.8 | 0% | 3% | 0% | 8th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 30th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chicago Fire: balanced profile (how G. Berhalter plays) · Charlotte: low-block (how Dean Smith plays)