League Two · Regular Season - 16
Chesterfield vs Shrewsbury
Sat 21 Nov 2026 · 15:00 UTC · SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield
Chesterfield host Shrewsbury on Sat 21 Nov 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chesterfield 47%, draw 28%, Shrewsbury 25%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chesterfield €338K, Shrewsbury €191K.
- Style contrast in possession (League Two): Chesterfield rank #1 of 26, Shrewsbury #25.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chesterfield goals first.
- 1–113%
- 2–19%
- 1–09%
- 2–08%
- 0–07%
- 1–26%
- Other scores48%
Team Elo: Chesterfield 1729 · Shrewsbury 1651
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chesterfield · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.7 (Good) · Elo 1775
Shrewsbury · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1726
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chesterfield
10th in League Two · 19 pts from 14
- 7 NovWYeovil Town England FA Cup1704
- 30 OctLNewport County England League Two1702
- 24 OctWCrewe England League Two1645
- 20 OctDColchester England League Two1745
- 17 OctLPort Vale England League Two1757
Shrewsbury
15th in League Two · 18 pts from 14
- 7 NovWEastleigh England FA Cup1667
- 31 OctLGillingham England League Two1706
- 27 OctWEverton U21 England EFL Trophy1440
- 24 OctDRotherham England League Two1697
- 20 OctWCrawley Town England League Two1684
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 19 /14 | 68.9 | 1% | 34% | 1% | 3rd |
| Shrewsbury | 18 /14 | 62.1 | <1% | 8% | 5% | 9th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chesterfield: possession-based · low-block (how P. Cook plays) · Shrewsbury: direct (how G. Cowan plays)