League Two · Regular Season - 13
Chesterfield vs Crewe
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UTC · SMH Group Stadium, Chesterfield
Chesterfield host Crewe on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Chesterfield 38%, draw 29%, Crewe 33%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Chesterfield €320K, Crewe €329K.
- Home advantage makes Chesterfield the favourite here: it adds 6 points to their win chance.
- Crewe are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Chesterfield goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 0–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–18%
- 1–28%
- Other scores43%
Team Elo: Chesterfield 1694 · Crewe 1725
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Chesterfield · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.5 (Average) · Elo 1549
Crewe · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +2.2 (Good) · Elo 1826
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Chesterfield
7th in League Two · 15 pts from 11
- 17 OctLPort Vale England League Two1762
- 10 OctDCrawley Town England League Two1766
- 3 OctWTranmere England League Two1756
- 26 SepLCheltenham England League Two1766
- 22 SepDPort Vale England EFL Trophy1566
Crewe
3rd in League Two · 21 pts from 11
- 17 OctWRochdale England League Two1725
- 10 OctWSwindon Town England League Two1690
- 6 OctDBlackpool England EFL Trophy1568
- 3 OctWBristol Rovers England League Two1647
- 26 SepDRotherham England League Two1654
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Chesterfield | 15 /11 | 68.2 | 2% | 31% | 1% | 4th |
| Crewe | 21 /11 | 75.8 | 13% | 68% | 0% | 2nd |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Chesterfield: possession-based · low-block (how Paul Anthony Cook plays) · Crewe: balanced profile (how Lee Bell plays)