League Two · Regular Season - 13
Cheltenham vs Newport County
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 11:30 UTC · Whaddon Road, Cheltenham
Cheltenham host Newport County on Sat 24 Oct 2026 (League Two); provisional chances from the two squads' Elo: Cheltenham 41%, draw 29%, Newport County 31%.
- Average value of the expected XI: Cheltenham €192K, Newport County €144K.
- Home advantage makes Cheltenham the favourite here: it adds 5 points to their win chance.
- Style contrast in pressing & duels (League Two): Cheltenham rank #1 of 24, Newport County #21.
- Cheltenham's expected eleven is out of form: average EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. -1.8 over 180 days.
- Newport County are unbeaten in their last 5 matches.
Provisional prediction
From both squads' Elo. The final prediction appears once the line-ups are confirmed, about 20–30 minutes before kick-off.
Most likely scores
Provisional, from both squads' Elo. Cheltenham goals first.
- 1–114%
- 1–09%
- 2–19%
- 0–09%
- 0–18%
- 1–27%
- Other scores44%
Team Elo: Cheltenham 1584 · Newport County 1588
Probable line-ups
Most starts in each club's last 5 matches.
Players to watch
Highest EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. (Elo Above Replacement over the last 180 days) in each expected eleven. Elo after each match, last three years.
Cheltenham · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +0.4 (Average) · Elo 1657
Newport County · EAR = Elo Above Replacement, football's version of baseball's WAR (Wins Above Replacement). Every rated match scores a player against the average performance for their position: better adds to EAR, worse subtracts. EAR180 adds up the last 180 days (current form); EAR career adds up every rated match. Our predictions add EAR180 to a player's Elo, about 37 Elo points per EAR point. +1.8 (Good) · Elo 1571
Form
Last five matches; the number is the team Elo of the eleven that started.
Cheltenham
8th in League Two · 15 pts from 11
- 17 OctLOldham England League Two1538
- 13 OctDTottenham Hotspur U21 England EFL Trophy1585
- 10 OctLSalford City England League Two1560
- 3 OctLAccrington ST England League Two1627
- 26 SepWChesterfield England League Two1588
Newport County
11th in League Two · 14 pts from 11
- 17 OctDYork England League Two1574
- 10 OctWColchester England League Two1590
- 6 OctDPlymouth England EFL Trophy1513
- 3 OctDGillingham England League Two1609
- 26 SepWGrimsby England League Two1545
Season outlook
From the League Two simulation.
| Club | Pts now | Pred. pts | Title | Top 4 | Bottom 3 | Most likely |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cheltenham | 15 /11 | 59.0 | <1% | 4% | 10% | 14th |
| Newport County | 14 /11 | 58.0 | <1% | 3% | 12% | 15th |
Each bar is one finishing position, 1st on the left to 24th on the right; the taller the bar, the likelier that finish.
Team Elo history
Starting-eleven Team Elo in league matches, last three years.
Coach Elo history
Elo after each match, last three years (the whole career if shorter).
Coach DNA: direct
Coach DNA: balanced profile
Playing style
How both clubs play against their own league (2024–2026).
Cheltenham: direct (how Stephen John Cotterill plays) · Newport County: balanced profile (how Hayden Ian Mullins plays)